Earnings:
Q1 2014 earnings are generally being considered a success – given that they did not fall apart. However, the expected gain in Q2 from delayed Q1 purchases has not yet shown up in economic data, and is concerning. Q2 2014 EPS estimates have been declining, but are still 4.2% above the record Q4 2013 Operating EPS, and 11.7% above the Q2 2013 level (again: buybacks don’t help the index EPS, but they do help on the issue level).
P.S. 60.4% of the time when the index makes a new high (when the prior day was not a new high), it goes on to make a new high the next day – which would be today (back-to-back). The stats on back-to-back-to-back is 54.9% (if it makes it to 2, today, than it makes it to 3, tomorrow).
This article was written by Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst, S&P Dow Jones Indices.
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