The risk here is that if the market moves against you, the odds increase that a rigid withdrawal plan will increase the odds of running out of money. If the market rallies, the opposite can happen and you will leave behind a large unspent surplus. (Great for your heirs, of course, but you would have enjoyed retirement less than you could have.)
So what’s a better rule of thumb? Probably one based on a dynamic amount, a percentage of your portfolio. You may have less to spend some years, and more others, but the risk of spending down your assets is substantially reduced. What’s more, as you get older and have a shorter retirement period to fund, you can increase the percentage.
Rule of Thumb #3: 120 minus Your Age
We know that it makes sense to have a more conservative portfolio as you get older. This Rule says the equity percentage in your portfolio should be 120%, minus your current age. So a 60 year old should have 60% equity while a 75 year old should have 45%. We can quibble over the percentage, but this sounds reasonable, right?
Well, no. And here’s why. Let’s say the 60 year old is retired and the 70 year old is healthy, happy, still working and plans on working until 75. The 70 year old can actually tolerate more risk than the 60 year old because she has five years of future wages to grow her assets and offset market loses. The 60 year old has no more future wages to offset losses and may feel that 60% equity is too high.
This idea of factoring future wage potential into the allocation is actually what some investment strategies do, and why a 30 year old (with 35 years of wages ahead of him) has more equity exposure than a 60 year old with only five years of human capital left.
Chip Castille, Managing Director, is head of the BlackRock US Retirement Group. You can find more of his posts here.