India exchange traded funds have been among the best-performing single-country emerging markets offerings this year and in the run-up to one of the most important elections in the country’s history, some India ETFs could be poised to deliver more upside.
The $503 million iShares India 50 ETF (NasdaqGM: INDY) is higher by 16.1% over the past 90 days and residing just 3.1% below its 52-week high. [Indy ETFs Shine Above BRIC Rivals]
INDY “looks to be forming a short-term consolidation here and could be ready to move higher within the next few weeks,” notes Deron Wagner of Morpheus Trading Group. “Volume has really dried up during the current consolidation. A dry up in volume during a consolidation is a bullish sign because it means the bears are not selling into strength as the ETF takes a rest.”
The rebound of India ETFs, such as INDY, this year relative to the broader emerging markets complex indicates stocks in Asia’s third-largest economy could be poised for further upside after flailing in 2013 due to rampant inflation, a plunging rupee and widening account deficit.
If INDY breaks above technical resistance created by its 2012 and 2013 highs, “bullish momentum should carry it substantially higher in the near to intermediate-term,” added Wagner.
With elections in the world’s largest democracy just weeks away, domestic and global investors are optimistic India will soon be home to a pro-business, reform-minded government.
Last week, Nomura said the sectors that stand to be big winners under a new Indian government are financial services, infrastructure and energy, Forbes reported. Those sectors combine for 36% of INDY’s weight.
Part of the reason India ETFs have rallied this year is the rupee rebound, but that is not good news for all sectors. A change in leadership in India is seen as a rupee positive event. A stronger currency could crimp shares of Indian information technology firms, which derive significant percentages of revenue of profits from foreign markets. Computer and software firms account for almost 15% of INDY’s weight. [Rupee ETFs Bounce Back]
iShares India 50 ETF
ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this post.