After being slammed last year, gold futures and exchange traded funds backed by physical holdings of gold have fared much better in 2014 as highlighted by the 7% gain by the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD).
Although at a snail’s pace, gold ETFs are also recouping some of the billions in assets lost last year. Globally, investors pulled $946 million from gold ETFs in January, but they returned to ETFs like GLD and the ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (NYSEArca: SGOL) in February and March, allocating a combined $858 million to gold funds in those two months. [Strong Demand Seen for Gold, Silver ETFs]
Some market technicians see opportunity ahead in GLD and rival gold ETFs.
“After forming a double bottom in January, GLD rallied 16% before stalling out beneath the last swing high in September. Gold looks to have found support the past few weeks, after undercutting the 40-week MA and the 50% Fibo level, while the 10-week moving average crossed above the 40-week MA. The 40-week MA has also just turned up after flattening out for a few weeks,” according to Deron Wagner of Morpheus Trading Group.
GLD and rival funds have traded lower over the past month, but broadly speaking, investor sentiment toward commodities has been positive this year.
“After seeing selling in January, gold ETPs moved strongly back into favour in February and March as investors revised down their highly bullish US growth assumptions and revised up the global risk outlook. Broad commodity ETPs also saw a turn in sentiment, with asset allocators rotating into the asset class as an alternative to overstretched developed market equities,” said ETF Securities Head of Research and Investment Strategy Nicholas Brooks in a research note. [Improving Sentiment Good for Commodities ETFs]
Regarding GLD, Wagner says the ETF is worth considering as a “potential trend reversal play above last week’s high. To confirm the reversal, GLD eventually will have to clear the highs of March.”
SPDR Gold Shares
ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this post. Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of GLD.