The Emerging Market consumers were going to dazzle the global investor as they indulged their retail dreams buying everything from designer tee shirts in Brazil to convenience store goods in Russia and cars in China.
However, the MSCI index is still down 20% since 2007.
Currently there isn’t much fundamental reason in the near term to be optimistic about consumer spending in emerging markets or most global markets.
A spreading dynamic is responsible for the sober outlook. Central Bankers have hiked interest rates to defend their depreciating currencies, reducing the willingness of consumers to borrow to buy goods and services.
The impact of higher interest rates is likely to be most pronounced and protracted in countries that run current account deficits; they are more vulnerable to the slack in global demand for commodities that is flowing from China’s economic slowdown.
Affected countries include Brazil and Turkey where consumer credit growth seems poised for a very sharp slowdown. Russia, where the consumer stock index has fallen over 25% so far this year, is the worst emerging market performer. A sharp hike in interest rates to defend the ruble is likely hit consumer spending in the coming weeks.
Indonesia, which has exposure to the Chinese economy, has bucked the trend this year because it’s Central Bank, encouraged by an improving current account picture, has held rates steady this year. China too shows signs of slowing consumer credit and households are growing increasingly cautious over consumer credit. Bottom line: demand for goods and services is absolutely necessary for GDP, jobs and real estate growth.
There are no worries for our clients since we are unconstrained and value protection, however, the slowing conditions in emerging markets could be large worries for other managers and investors. The US markets are down for the year and under pressure. Bonds are trying to hold and gold is still in the channel.
DISCLOSURE: Opinions and estimates offered constitute the judgment of MCS and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.
This article was written by Metropolitan Capital Strategies CEO Sharon Snow and Chief Investment Officer David Schombert.