Coffee-related exchange traded notes have been the best performing exchange traded products so far this year, but the ETNs have experienced net outflows as some traders cashed in their profits.
The iPath Dow Jones-UBS Coffee Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSEArca: JO) has surged 77.5% year-to-date as a record drought decimated crops in Brazil, the world’s largest grower of coffee.
However, JO has experienced $96.6 million in outflows year-to-date, according to ETF.com data.
The ETN attracted $25.2 million in assets over January, with volume picking up in the last week of the month as traders began to anticipate poor weather conditions. [Wake Up and Smell the Coffee ETN]
Despite a phenomenal surge in prices over February, the coffee ETN saw assets shrink by $47 million. JO also lost $72.6 million in March after a large correction in the coffee market. [Caffeine Crash Has Coffee ETN Closing in on Bear Territory]
While coffee prices are higher this month, futures have begun to dip again as observers anticipate wetter conditions. According to MDA Weather Services, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, parts of Espirito Santo and central and souther Minas Gerais will experience above-normal rainfall over the next six to ten days, reports Marvin G. Perez for Bloomberg.
“Everybody is keeping an eye on the Brazilian crop,” Julio Sera, risk management consultant at INTL FCStone, said in the article. “This is causing strong price swings.”
Goldman Sachs also anticipates greater volatility in the coffee market ahead due to Brazil’s unstable weather.
“While it is still too early to assess the full impact of the Brazil drought, this supply disruption comes on top of continued spread of the coffee leaf rust in Central America as well as expectations for a return of El Nino conditions, which historically negatively impact global production,” Goldman Sachs said in an Agrimoney article. “Given these production concerns and the potential for both the 2014-15 and 2015-16 arabica coffee supply-demand balance to be in deficit, we expect prices to remain volatile in coming months.”
iPath Dow Jones-UBS Coffee Total Return Sub-Index ETN
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