Looked at another way, when ETF traders express confidence that rates will rise alongside a strong economy, they typically short U.S. Treasury bonds via ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year (TBT). Yet the “TBT trade” has not looked this anemic since bond investors put Fed tapering worries to bed last August. Treasury bonds as an asset class have actually trended higher since the end of August.
The bottom line is that consumer stocks may weigh on other stock segments in the months ahead. The bond market certainly thinks so. Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Bond (EDV) is gaining momentum by the day.
