The iPath Dow Jones-UBS Coffee Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSEArca: JO) entered Wednesday as this year’s top-performing non-equity exchange traded product and built on those gains with a jump of 3.6% on volume that was double the daily average.
Last month, coffee futures posted their best monthly performance since August 2011 thanks to an ongoing drought in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of the commodity. Early forecasts put Brazilian production above 60 million bags this year, and now, analyst expect 52 million to 55 million bags. [Wake up and Smell the Coffee ETN]
Even with the recent surge, JO would need to climb another 14.3% to reclaim its 52-week high, indicating the ETN does offer some upside for investors willing to wait for a pullback.
JO “has paused for a few days, correcting more by time than price (shallow correction). The combination of tight trading range and light volume over the past few days is bullish, so $JO should eventually move higher after a short-term,” according to Deron Wagner of Morpheus Trading Group.
A wildcard regarding coffee is China. The world’s second-largest economy looms large in the coffee demand picture as it does with so many other commodities.
“Coffee is up since the consumption of coffee in China is expected to grow by an annual rate of 9% for the next five years. This is not only from China’s large population but it’s rising middle class, which is expected to grow to 630 million people from 230 million,” said S&P Dow Jones Indices Vice President Jodie Gunzberg in a note out earlier this week. [Warning: Hot Coffee May Burn]