Over the past month, coffee prices and related exchange traded notes have surged, and the rally could extend as elections, weather damage in Indonesia, the third-biggest grower of robusta, and the World Cup limit exports abroad.
The iPath Dow Jones-UBS Coffee Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSEArca: JO) jumped 19.4% over the past week over concerns of severe crop damage in Brazil, the largest producer in the world, and gained 55.3% year-to-date. [Coffee ETN Gets Hyper as Brazilian Crops Wither]
In Indonesia, the median of five exporters and roasters estimate sales could dip to 375,000 metric tons, a three-year-low, from 450,000 in 2013, Bloomberg reports.
Meanwhile, the Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industry believe that domestic demand will jump 7.5% from 200,000, compared to the average 5% growth annually over the last three years.
The industry points to parliamentary elections in April and a presidential poll in July as catalyst for increased coffee consumption in Indonesia – campaigns typically increase consumption on all goods in Indonesia, according to Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.
“This is a political year where food and beverage demand typically gains,” Hutama Sugandhi, chairman of the Indonesia Coffee Exporters’ Association, said in the article. Contenders “will be holding meetings and gatherings and people will drink coffee.”
Meanwhile, production in the Southeast Asian country could decline on heavy rains and wind damage in the main growing regions.