In fairness to Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY) rose in 2007 when Manning led the Indianapolis Colts to a Super Bowl win. However, that is not enough to generate a positive average return in years when the Mannings (Peyton and Eli) have won the Super Bowl. That data is skewed by SPY’ 37% plunge in 2008 when Eli Manning and the Giants won the Super Bowl.
It is easy to be a naysayer regarding the efficacy of something like the Super Bowl Theory, but the accuracy of the January Effect should dispel such notions. [Buy Micro-Cap ETFs Before January Rolls Around]
“However, the problem is ‘As January goes, so goes the year’ has been right for 62 of the last 85 years, or 72.9% of the time: 51.8% of the time January and the market moved up together and 21.2% of the time they move down together. January has been up 55 times since 1929, with that year being up 44 times, or 80% of the time. The market closed down 30 times in January over that time period, with the year being up 12 times, or 40% of the time,” according to Silverblatt.
Super Bowl Theory: 37 for 47
Chart Courtesy: S&P Dow Jones Indices
Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of SPY.