After tumbling more than 36% last year, silver exchange traded funds are off to a rough start in 2014 with the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV) and the ETFS Physical Silver Shares (NYSEArca: SIVR) each down almost 3%.
On the surface, it appears silver is primed for more downside, but some technical analysts think the white has the potential to rally.
“Silver has had a rough couple of years, losing over 50% of its value after creating what looks like a double top, 30-years apart. The decline has taken Silver down to its 38% Fib support level (this is a 30-year Fib level), testing a 10-year support line for the first time and very few believe in Silver right now (26% bulls & massive short positions are in place),” said Chris Kimble of Kimble Charting Solutions.
Kimble points out that silver futures are hovering around critical long-term support provided by an uptrend line that dates back to 2000. If support of that magnitude is violated, silver could be harshly punished, making the ProShares UltraShort Silver (NYSEArca: ZSL) a compelling play.
“If you believe in buying on support with a stop below support…this price/pattern situation in Silver that is at hand right now, hasn’t happened many times over the past 30-years,” added Kimble.
One catalyst that could spark silver in the near-term is seasonality. As was noted earlier this week, usually the best time of year to own silver is Dec. 23 to Feb. 28. Over the past 20 years, silver has frequently posted strong gains in that time frame. [Seasonal Trends Could Benefit Silver ETFs]
That outlook jibes with what some other technical analysts have said regarding silver. Previous views have indicated that if silver could find a bottom around $18, a move to $22 an ounce could be in the offing.
iShares Silver Trust
ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this post. Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of SLV.