The iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV) and the ETFS Physical Silver Shares (NYSEArca: SIVR) are both down 28% this year. Combine heavy losses for physically backed gold ETFs and the often intimate correlation shared by the yellow and white metals, and it is understandable that many investors are not bullish on either gold or silver.
Patient investors may want to reconsider their bearish views on silver. Last week, CPM Group, a commodities research, consulting, financial advisory, asset management, and commodities management firm, revealed a bullish long-term forecast on silver.
Embattled silver could start another ascent over the next decade, “continuing a secular bull trend that began at the turn of the century,” said CPM in a report.
Silver has recently shown signs of being a better bet than its pricier cousin, gold. Over the past 90 days; SLV is up nearly 7% while the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) is down 1.5%. Year-to-date, GLD has seen outflows of $21.7 billion, making it the worst ETF by that metric. Despite silver’s slide, investors have put nearly $345 million into SLV. [Silver ETF Slams Gold Rivals]
Over the next 10 years, CPM sees investors becoming more bullish on silver in the latter half of that time frame, saying rising industrial demand could foster increased capital appreciation. By some estimates, industrial usage accounts for half of global silver demand. [Industrial Demand Helps Silver ETFs Shine]
In a strong industrial demand scenario, “silver prices could rise rapidly, possibly touching fresh record highs within the next ten years,” according to CPM.
SLV’s all-time high, touched in April 2011, is just under $47. The ETF closed just over $21 on Friday.
iShares Silver Trust
ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this post. Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of GLD and SLV.