A month ago, I warned that volatility was likely to rise into September from the summer’s more placid levels. As discussed, over the past week, both equity and bond market volatility have hit two-month highs.
Looking forward, the rocky road is likely to continue in the near term thanks to investor anxiety and uncertainty surrounding three issues.
1. The uncertainty surrounding the economic recovery. Most recent economic reports (including US manufacturing data and numbers out of Europe and Asia) suggest marginal improvement in the global economy, but the recovery has been uneven. This was evident in last Friday’s non-farm payroll report, which showed that while the US economy is stabilizing, job growth is not accelerating. In short, investors are focusing on the mixed nature of the US data – stronger manufacturing but continued weakness in jobs and consumption.
2. The uncertainty surrounding what the Federal Reserve (Fed) will do. Given the uneven nature of the recovery, the Fed will have a difficult decision as to the timing and extent of any tapering. Adding to the uncertainty, it is still unclear who is going to head the Fed in 2014.
3. The growing geopolitical uncertainty, particularly surrounding the Middle East. It’s unclear how the humanitarian disaster in Syria will unfold, but growing unrest in much of the Middle East has led to a significant reduction in oil supply. The supply reduction has pushed oil prices up 25% above April lows. Should the region’s violence escalate and the instability spread, higher energy prices are likely to impede the global recovery.