2. Europe is unlikely to help foster global growth in the near term. Growth in Europe continues to contract, albeit at a slower pace than a year ago, with unemployment around a record high. While I expect European growth to improve somewhat by year’s end, a region representing roughly 20% of the global economy stuck in neutral means global growth will continue to be soft for the foreseeable future.
3. US growth – particularly for the export sector – will continue to be negatively impacted by Europe. One big reason why US manufacturing has been slow lately is that Europe is buying fewer US exports.
Unfortunately, the European political calendar, including important German elections in September, suggests that few of the region’s issues will be tackled this year.
And until Europe either turns the economic corner or addresses its lingering structural problems, I remain cautious on the region’s stocks even though they are cheap by most metrics and offer some long-term value. For now, I believe there are better near-term investing opportunities in other developed markets such as the United States and Japan.
Russ Koesterich, CFA, is the iShares Global Chief Investment Strategist.