A homebuilder ETF is up 43% so far this year to climb to its highest level since 2008 in the wake of the housing bust.
SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSEArca: XHB) has rallied on faint signs of improvement in the housing market and hopes the companies are done taking charges on troubled assets.
The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (NYSEArca: ITB) is another ETF that invests in homebuilder stocks and related housing sectors. It is up 57.6% year to date, according to Morningstar.
The Dow Jones US Home Construction Index lost 90% of its value from the top in 2005 to the nadir in 2008 as the housing market imploded following the subprime debacle, according to Kimble Charting Solutions.
Yet over the past 11 months the index has outpaced the S&P 500 by 50 percentage points.
“The broad market needs this index to continue higher. If this index can break resistance … it would be a positive sign for this index and the economy as a whole,” according to Kimble.
Still, Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture blog warns investors not to confuse homebuilder stock prices with home prices.
“The elements that drive their stock prices are very different than what drives home prices,” he wrote.
The builders have written down overpriced land purchases and soured mortgages, while moving aggressively into the hot multifamily and rental markets, Ritholtz said.
“We saw the same erroneous logic during the initial phase of the [real estate]crash, from 2006-09 — every uptick in Homebuilder was met with a cheer from the Housing turnaround crew. They were wrong then, and they are most likely wrong now,” he wrote.
SPDR S&P Homebuilders
