“We’re getting to a point where everybody is going to be on hold waiting for some action out of the ECB and the Fed,” said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at the private-banking unit of KeyCorp, in a Bloomberg report. “At this time of the year, there are fewer people in the office.”
Although the VIX is Wall Street’s favorite fear index, it does have some limitations as a sentiment benchmark.
“Before trying to use the VIX as a predictive gauge, especially to determine complacency and therefore a sell signal, always keep in mind that the VIX is mathematical calculation and tends to revert to the mean. It is most useful when it reaches an extreme only relative the actual or realized volatility for an extended period of time,” writes Steve Smith at Minyanville.
“Note back in 2005 and 2006 there were a number of periods where the VIX was running in the pre-teen 11 to 12 range,” he said. “But during these stretches the S&P 500’s historically volatility had sunk into the single digits. The market went on to make new highs in 2007 before the wheels came off in 2008 and the VIX rocketed.”
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN
Full disclosure: Tom Lydon’s clients own TVIX.