Gold rose above $1,580 an ounce Tuesday morning as fears of a disorderly Greek Euro exit have prompted a recent flight to safe havens.
Growing investor concerns about the potential negative implications of a disorderly exit of Greece from the Euro caused a flight of investor capital into cash and G-3 bonds last week. According to the Institute of International Finance, a Greek Euro exit would more than wipe-out the ECB’s capital, drive it into insolvency and make it unable to stabilize the Euro area’s financial sector.
As the potential costs to the ECB, the European banking system and the European and global economy begin to sink in, investors appear to be taking the recent gold price decline as an opportunity to build their strategic gold holdings.
Central banks continue to aggressively build gold reserves
Data released by the IMF last week shows that the official sector has continued to buy gold in large size this year.
According to the latest statistics, Mexico added around another 3 metric tons in April to its near 17-ton buying spree in March, while Kazakhstan purchased 2 tons. The Philippines, which reported March data, added 32 tons to its reserves, the largest official purchase in over a year since Mexico’s 78-ton purchase in 2011.
Swiss palladium imports from Russia drop to zero in April
Switzerland is where the bulk of Russian state stockpiles are exported for sale onto the global market. Russian exports dropped from around 65,000 ounces in March to zero in April, indicating that forecasts of dwindling Russian state palladium reserves may be correct.
Platinum group metal consultant Johnson Matthey forecasts that a drop of Russian palladium sales in 2012 to 250,000 ounces from over 1,000,000 ounces in 2011 will drive palladium supply into deficit this year. Swiss platinum imports hit a 4-year low in April on the back of reduced supply from South Africa.
The week ahead
News that Greece’s New Democracy party, which supports the bailout plan and the Euro, ranked first in opinion polls released on the weekend may help to stabilize markets this week. However, the continued deep discord between Eurozone leaders on a host of critical issues are likely to keep the markets on edge.
On the data front, further evidence of the growing divide between European and US growth is likely with the release of manufacturing (PMIs), while later this week the U.S. nonfarm payroll report will be scrutinized to see whether U.S. employment conditions remain on an improving trend.
Platinum, palladium and silver, in the near-term, will likely continue to trade positively with perceptions of the sustainability of the recovery of the global industrial cycle, while gold will benefit from any signals of the need for further quantitative easing by the Fed or ECB.
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (NYSEArca: SGOL)
