Gold and silver exchange traded funds have been relatively quiet in recent weeks although technically the precious metal ETFs are trending slightly downwards with a series of lower highs.
For the three months ended April 27, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) was down 4.5% while iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV) lost 7.9%, although both funds are in positive territory for the year-to-date period, according to Morningstar.
The Federal Reserve meeting last week was “largely a non-event for precious metals, offering no additional hints on the possibility of another round of quantitative easing,” said ETF Securities analysts Martin Arnold and Nicholas Brooks in a note Monday. “However, policymakers maintained their call for ‘exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.’”.
The firm manages metals ETFs, including ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (NYSEArca: SGOL) and ETFS Physical Silver Shares (NYSEArca: SIVR).
“Gold is trading a tight range, constrained by the conflicting forces of surging global liquidity and Eurozone sovereign troubles on one side and a strong dollar and weak physical demand from India on the other,” the analysts said. [Gold ETFs and India]
On Monday afternoon, gold prices were hovering around $1,665 an ounce, while silver stood at $31 an ounce. [Spain ETF Falls on Recession, Bank Downgrades]
“Spain’s credit downgrade last week again raised gold’s safe-haven appeal, but the consequent U.S. dollar strength weighed on gold demand,” Arnold and Brooks wrote. “U.S. dollar strength is likely to continue to act as a weight on the gold price in the near-term, while the flood of central bank liquidity stimulus, concerns about pipeline inflation and ultra-low interest rates should remain structurally supportive.” [Watch Dollar ETF for Next Moves in Gold]
They noted one bullish factor for gold is central bank buying, particularly in emerging markets.
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares
Full disclosure: Tom Lydon’s clients own GLD and SLV.