In the past six sessions, the message that the Euro currency has given investors in terms of price action can be summed up in three words: Not so fast!
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSEArca: FXE) has suddenly been tripped up, dropping in five of the last six sessions before finding some late day support yesterday around its 50 day moving average.
Trading as high as $134.26 a share in late February which was more than a 2 month high, fears about the European debt crisis resurfaced swiftly and suddenly last week and followed into the early part of this week, and the “Euro bears” whom have been picking spots and shorting the Euro via futures, options, and funds such as FXE as well as ProShares UltraShort Euro (NYSEArca: EUO), reared their heads.
Not coincidentally, PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bullish (NYSEArca: UUP) call buyers have begun to resurface as well, and over the last several months we have pointed out UUP call buying that tends to be in sync with FXE put buying, as well as EUO call buying.
All of the trading seems correlated, as the motives are similar in all cases, and that is to gain short exposure to the Euro. For the Euro currency itself, it has been a very wild ride in recent weeks, as it seemed that the smoke had cleared as FXE rallied from below $130 to over $134 in short order, only to quickly lose steam and finally find some support around the $130 level which as we mentioned is near the 50 day moving average ($130.28).
Short interest still remains near multi-year highs in Euro futures and options, which likely has provided fuel for a rally when “good” news hits the market coming out of Europe, but at the same time, it is evident to market observers that the shorts are still in the picture and seem to have conviction that the Euro situation will worsen before it gets better.
Funds worth watching as potential trading and/or hedging vehicles outside of those mentioned above amid the continued volatility in the Euro and the U.S. Dollar include Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN (NYSEArca: DRR), ProShares Ultra Euro (NYSEArca: ULE), iPath EUR/USD Exchange Rate ETN (NYSEArca: ERO), Market Vectors Double Long Euro ETN (NYSEArca: URR), PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bearish (NYSEArca: UDN), PowerShares DB 3X Long U.S. Dollar Index Futures ETN (NYSEArca: UUPT) and PowerShares DB 3X Short U.S. Dollar Index Futures ETN (NYSEArca: UDNT).
We do note that this morning in the early going, the Euro is up sharply, about 0.65% on Greek debt resolution optimism.
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSEArca: FXE)
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