A well-known economic prognosticator has issued his 10 predictions for the New Year. If they come to fruition, you’ll want these exchange traded funds (ETFs) on your radar to capitalize.
Gregory White for Business Insider reports that Byron Wien, Vice Chairman of Blackstone Advisory Parnters, has 10 brand-new predictions for the new year. However, Wien only believes that there is a 50% chance that any of his predictions will come to pass, so do with that what you will.
Economy. Improved trade, capital spending and stronger retail sales could help push GDP to 5% and bring unemployment down to 9%. [Is the President’s Third Year a Charm for ETFs?]
- SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEArca: DIA)
Treasury. Rising Federal budget deficit and government debt could result drive yields on 10-year T-notes to 5%. [Should We Be Worried About Treasury ETFs?]
- iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSEArca: IEF)
S&P 500. The S&P 500 will edge toward 1500 as earnings improve and investors return to low-valued equities. But the markets could correct in the second half as interest rates increase. [Will Broad Market ETFs Set New Records in 2011?]
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca: SPY)
Gold. Gold prices could cross $1600 as global investors stick to investing in a “real” source of wealth. [5 Reasons Precious Metals ETFs May Stay Solid.]
- SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD)
China. As China manipulates its currency to manage growth and inflation, global economies could soon begin to adopt a basket of currencies, including the renminbi, as an alternative to the dollar. [China ETFs: Challenges in the New Year.]
- iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (NYSEArca: FXI)
Agriculture. The rising standard of living in emerging markets will raise the demand for agricultural goods. [Agriculture ETFs: No Signs of Stopping.]
- PowerShares DB Agriculture (NYSEArca: DBA)
Housing. The housing market will improve as the oversupply of unsold homes diminishes. The Case-Shiller Index may begin to rise and housing could cross 600,000.
- SPDR S&P Home Builders ETF (NYSEArca: XHB)
Oil. Rising demand from the emerging markets, without any additional sources of supply, could cause oil prices to jump to $115 per barrel.
- United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO)
Middle East. The President will withdraw troops from Afghanistan and leave the area to the rule of warlords.
- Market Vectors Gulf States (NYSEArca: MES)
Europe. The European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will provide additional aid to weaker states, but the aid will come with more stringent measures, assuaging the market’s concern for the continent.
- iShares S&P Europe 350 Index Fund (NYSEArca: IEV)
Predictions have a way of being unpredictable. When you’re playing these and other predictions, you’d be wise to have a simple strategy at the ready. We use trend following for our clients, which you can learn more about here.
Max Chen contributed to this article.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.