After a challenging year, we’re beginning to see a recovery in emerging market exchange traded funds (ETFs). The denizens of those countries have noticed, too, and they’re riding on a wave of optimism fueled by investors who believe their chances for growth are better than those of the United States and Europe.
Vikas Bajaj and Keith Bradsher for The New York Times note that after a run to the exits in the fourth quarter, the markets seem to be realizing that while emerging economies have issues, they’re manageable.
Jason Ng for International Business Times reports that the Shanghai Composite Index has gained over 40%, the Bombay SENSEX gained over 50% and the Russian RTS Index advanced over 70%.
Why the optimism? Some analysts attribute it to China and the belief that their powerful economy is improving. Economic data in developing countries is improving: car sales are up in India, retail sales are up in Brazil, industrial production is up in China.
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) is an ETF that tracks the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The fund is an easy way to play the whole emerging markets sector without having to pick a particular region or country.
EEM has been on investors’ radar, as the correction in these markets has led the fund above its 50 day-moving average, following the breakout above its 200-day moving average. But it has a ways to go before it climbs back to where it was: as of Thursday, EEM was at $33.54, compared to $55.83 before the economic crash.
Some, of course, wonder if it’s just irrational exuberance. Whether it is or not, there’s a clear trend in place, and you can’t fight those. Protect yourself with an exit strategy, however, if the rally reverses itself.
- iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM): up 34.3% year-to-date
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.