Latin America’s exchange traded funds (ETFs) were hit hard today, and its fastest economic expansion in 30 years might be coming to an end.
The global credit crunch has been stunting investment and dampening demand for the region’s commodities, say Joshua Goodman and Sebastian Boyd for Bloomberg. Growth in the region for 2009 could be cut to less than 3.3%, from 4.6% this year.
Brazil’s 2009 growth is forecast to be 3.6%, a cut from the projected 4% two months ago. Mexico may grow 2.6% next year.
The news hit Latin America’s ETFs hard, and several declined by as much as 12% in trading today.
As the global economy slows down, the amount of Latin American migrant workers sending money home is dropping, possibly affecting the economies of these up-and-coming markets.
Alejandro Lazo for Washington Post reports that a dropoff in remittances would not exacerbate poverty in home countries, but it indicates the problems facing Latin American workers in the United States. The bottom line is that the money being sent home to Latin America is not going as far as it used to, as the slowdown was evident this year in Mexico and Brazil. El Salvador and Guatemala posted declines in August 2008, compared with August 2007.
The bank projects that migrants will send home about $67.5 billion in 2008, an increase of about 1.5 percent compared with the $66.5 billion sent home last year. Inflation is also a threat here and over the borders. The weaker U.S. dollar has not helped, either.
Latin American-focused ETFs:
- iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index (ILF), down 32.3% year-to-date
- iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ), down 41.9% year-to-date
- iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM), down 39% year-to-date
- iShares MSCI Mexico (EWW), down 23.1% year-to-date