As the cost of fossil fuel prices rise and exchange traded funds (ETFs) reap the rewards while our wallets take a beating, people are beginning to want answers.
Who’s to blame? Lately, "speculator" seems to be as dirty a word to some as "lawyer" or "journalist."
TrimTabs Investment Research came out with a report on Thursday saying that oil speculation had the potential to destroy the economy and send the world into financial ruin, reports Laura Mandaro for MarketWatch.
TrimTabs said that this year, commodity trading advisors and commodity ETFs have received $2 billion a month. If just half of those assets bought oil futures, they would present long positions in 100,000 contracts a month – or 3% of the open interest in oil futures.
But do speculators really deserve the bad rap?
James Saft for Reuters doesn’t think so. And neither does Francisco Blanch, the head of global commodities research at Merrill Lynch in London. He points out that while there has definitely been an increase in contracts on some exchange traded commodities futures, many markets have also seen a rise in such contracts on sugar and hogs, too, and they haven’t seen the same price spike as oil.
Not only that, but commodities that aren’t a part of indexes, such as coal, have also experienced rising prices in recent years.
Instead of pointing fingers, Saft says it’s just a matter of looking at the fundamentals: demand is up in Asia and emerging markets; oil-producing countries are reluctant to step up production; and the U.S. dollar is weak, stimulating demand.
Whether it’s speculators, fundamentals or a full moon, the high cost of everything from food to energy should be a warning sign for us all that it’s time to change our habits. Who knows if life is going to remain this expensive or not? The fact is, fossil fuel is finite, and a lasting change is only going to come from a concerted effort to live in a way that involves using less of it. Perhaps the high prices were the kick in the pants we needed.
Wherever you land on the issue, it’s a free market. There’s no question that the rising popularity of ETFs and the assets in the commodity funds might be drawing investors out of the wordwork, individual investors and advisors have the ease of participating in this trend as long as it continues.
Today, oil prices rebounded to $135.83 a barrel.
