After President Donald Trump announced the U.S.’s intentions of enacting increased tariffs on Mexican products, exchange traded fund investors should look to their own portfolios to see if they have any outsized exposures with high sensitivity to these new trade barriers.
Mexico is the United States’ third largest trading partner and is the second largest exporter of electronics to the United States. The U.S. is the largest export partner for Mexico, consuming about 80% of Mexican-made goods.
President Trump announced he will implement a broad 5% tariff on all Mexico’s products shipped to the U.S., and the levies could hit 25% by October if Mexico fails to satisfy the White House’s demands on illegal immigration.
In response to the heightened trade risks, Deutsche Bank has highlighted a range of ETF themes that are exposed to greater risks associated to the increased trade barriers.
For starters, DB analysts highlighted direct Mexico country-related ETFs, such as ALPS Emerging Sector Dogs ETF (NYSEArca: EDOG), Franklin FTSE Mexico ETF (NYSEArca: FLMX), iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWW) and iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Mexico (NYSEArca: HEWW).
The rising trade costs also puts a wrench in the global auto industry, with Mexico supplying a large portion of U.S. motor vehicles and vehicle parts. Consequently, it could affect auto-related ETFs like the Global X Auto ETF (NYSEArca: VROM) and First Trust NASDAQ Global Auto ETF (NasdaqGM: CARZ), along with areas heavily reliant on the auto industry, such as the First Trust Germany AlphaDEX Fund (NYSEArca: FGM).
Since Mexico is a major supplier of electronics to the U.S., we may see technology-related ETFs taking a hit, including sector-specific strategies like the SPDR S&P Technology Hardware ETF (NYSEArca: XTH) and First Trust Nasdaq-100 Tech Index (NasdaqGM: QTEC).
The agricultural industry and related ETFs like the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSEArca: MOO) could take a hit. The agribusiness segments covers industries ranging from agri-chemicals, animal health and fertilizers, seeds and traits, from farm/irrigation equipment and farm machinery, aquaculture and fishing, livestock, cultivation and plantations and trading of agricultural products.
Lastly, commodities such as Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV), along with related industries like Global X Silvers Miners ETF (NYSEArca: SIL), could face hurdles due to the rising trade costs.
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