In an interview with Gary Shilling, Heesun Wee of Tech Ticker states that Shilling believes deflation is inevitable because of technological advances boosting productivity, globalization and weak demand for U.S. consumer goods.  He suggests these factors could lead to higher inventories and cut about 1.5% off real U.S. GDP growth each year.

If this is the case, you don’t have to run for the hills, as there are ways to hedge deflation with ETFs.  A common place to look is at high-dividend paying investments, such as utilities, which can be accessed through the Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU), up 5.1% year-to-date (More reasons to look at utilities).

Another good sector to consider is health care. (More reasons health care is appealing).  This can be played through the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Healthcare Providers (NYSEArca: IHF), which is up 28.3% year-to-date.

For more stories on health care, visit our health care category.

Consumer staples are also an option to hedge deflation. The unemployment rate is at a 26-year high, which means that there are still millions of people feeling the pinch. When they shop, they’re looking for what they need, not what they want. Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLP) is up 15.4% year-to-date.

If deflation does become a factor, the dollar should begin an uptrend. If this happens, a potential play could be the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Bullish (NYSEArca: UUP), which is down 9.4% year-to-date.

Kevin Grewal contributed to this article.

Some retailers reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, including Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Saks (NYSE: SKS) and Target (NYSE: TGT). But the retailers also cautioned that they were nervous about the holiday shopping season, say Stephen Bernard and Tim Paradis for the Associated Press. The earnings follow yesterday’s report that showed October retail sales rose 1.4%. (Retail sales rise). Retail HOLDRs (NYSEArca: RTH) is down about 1.3% this morning; Target is 8.5% and Home Depot is 12%. (For more stories about retail ETFs, visit our category page).

Wholesale inflation fell unexpectedly last month while industrial output rose less than forecast. This gives the Federal Reserve more impetus to keep interest rates at record lows, report Luca Di Leo and Jeff Bater for The Wall Street Journal. The producer price index rose by 0.3%, but fell 0.6% excluding food and energy prices.

The report eases concerns that inflation will be a near-term threat to the economic recovery.

Mortgage delinquencies shot to another record in the third quarter. As of Sept. 30, 6.25% of all U.S. mortgage loans were 60 days or more past due. Last year at this time, 3.96% of all homes were delinquent, reports Eileen AJ Connelly for the Associated Press. An expert said that for the situation to right itself, home values and unemployment need to recover. (For more stories about real estate, visit our category page).

All three major indexes – the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq – have hit new intraday highs for 2009. The move was sparked by growth in Japan, a rally in energy and a positive report from the retail sector. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also spoke this morning to say that the central bank would monitor the value of the dollar as they keep rates at record lows. (Is it time to stick a fork in the dollar?). The SPDRs (NYSEArca: SPY) are trading up about 1.5% this morning.

October retail sales made a surprise 1.4% gain on the strength of auto sales, reports Martin Crutsinger for the Associated Press. While the report is just what the markets needed after dismal September figures, analysts are still concerned about consumer spending in general. After all, unemployment is still sky-high, incomes are stagnating and credit remains constricted. Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLP) is up about 1% this morning.

UPS (NYSE: UPS) is projecting that it will move about 22 million packages this year on its busiest day, Dec. 21. The volume is slightly higher than what it was in 2008. The number will match the previous record forecast, which was set in 2007, reports Mary Jane Credeur for Bloomberg. iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average (NYSEArca: IYT) is up about 2.5% this morning. (For more stories on transportation, visit our category).

]]> http://www.etftrends.com/2009/11/midday-market-update-indexes-hit-intraday-highs.html/feed/ 0 http://www.etftrends.com/2009/11/6-etfs-consider-recovery.html http://www.etftrends.com/2009/11/6-etfs-consider-recovery.html#comments Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:00:19 +0000 Tom Lydon http://www.etftrends.com/?p=20641 Despite elevated unemployment levels, the economy appears to be in recovery mode which could be beneficial for certain exchange traded funds (ETFs). But which areas are poised to benefit the most?

Two sectors that have performed well over the past year and are poised to continue moving upward in a recovering economy are technology and consumer discretionary, according to Benzinga.com. Additionally, the transportation sector seems to have some appeal because transportation is required to move finished goods.

Technology is prospering because consumers have an insatiable desire for innovation, while the latest technology gives businesses a much-needed competitive advantage. (More on technology).  The sector can be accessed through the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Sector Index Fund (NYSE Arca: IYW), which is up 54.6% year-to-date.

The consumer discretionary sector has been pummeled by recent economic conditions as consumers remain loath to spend. As the recovery continues and confidence is regained, though, it’s wise to keep in mind that the most beaten-down areas offer the greatest potential for growth. (Why donsumer discretionary is hot).  It can be accessed through the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR), which is up 39.6% year-to-date.

On the same token, since this is expected to be a soft recovery, it’s worth keeping an eye on the consumer staples sector, as well. The unemployment rate is at a 26-year high, which means that there are still millions of people feeling the pinch. When they shop, they’re looking for what they need, not what they want. PowerShares Dynamic Consumer Staples (NYSEArca: PSL) is up 17.5% year-to-date.

The transportation sector has been hit hard and will naturally improve as the economy does; even Warren Buffett seems good value in the sector, based on his recent acquisition of Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI). (Where transportation goes from here).  It can be accessed through the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Transportation (IYT) which is up 13.4% year-to-date. For more stories on the transportation sector, visit our transportation category.

The shipping sector is another indicator of how the world is recovering. Once global demand resumes, shipping prices should recover and an increase in available ships will be moot. (What challenges are facing the shipping industry?) As consumers begin to spend more and nations struggle to rebuild, this sector will ultimately reflect a shift in tides. Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (NYSEArca: SEA), up 29.1% year-to-date.

Last, but certainly not least, consider emerging markets. While the United States recovery lags, that doesn’t mean there are no opportunities. Emerging markets have outperformed handily this year – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (NYSEArca: EEM) is up 61.6% year-to-date, vs. the S&P 500, which is up 20.4%.

For full disclosure, Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of EEM.

Kevin Grewal contributed to this article.

Consumer sentiment fell in the early part of this month to the weakest in three months. Concerns about jobs and income continue to weigh on consumers’ minds, Reuters reports. This could mean restrained spending around the holidays. (How to play retailer’s price wars).

The U.S. trade deficit widened in September by a larger-than-expected 18%, the highest level since January. Imports also jumped by the most in 16 years. The trade deficit’s growth reflected increasing demand for oil and cars amid the economic rebound, reports Bob Willis for Bloomberg.

Oil prices dipped to their lowest point in a month as investors began to pay more close attention to the slump in demand for energy. Although for much of the year many thought demand would resume, consumers and businesses are still using less gasoline than they were a year ago, says Chris Kahn for the Associated Press. United States Oil (NYSEArca: USO) is trading flat this morning.

Europe has officially left its recession. The eurozone economy was largely propelled back to health on the strength of export growth and improving industrial production in Germany, its largest economy. GDP for the 16 countries making up the region expanded by 0.4% in the second quarter, reports Matt Saltmarsh for The New York Times. iShares MSCI Germany (NYSEArca: EWG) is up 1.2% this morning. For more stories about Europe, visit our Europe category.

The Labor Department reported that new claims for unemployment fell to the lowest number since Jan. 3. The figure was also below what economists had reported.

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) reported that its profit were up 3.2%, although sales at stores open for at least one year were down slightly as economic conditions remained challenged. Wal-Mart has been a standout in the recession, thanks to being considered a low-price leader. The store attributed the drop in sales solely to falling prices, reports Stephanie Rosenbloom for The New York Times. Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLP) was down slightly this morning; Wal-Mart is 10%. For more stories on consumer activity, visit our retail category.

Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) has been ordered to pay $1.25 billion as part of a settlement in an antritrust and patent case. Advanced Micro Devices had charged Intel with using strong-arm tactics to pressure PC and server makers to use its processors. In return for the settlement, AMD would withdraw its complaints, say Vindu Goel and James Kanter for The New York Times. iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology (NYSEArca: IYW) is trading slightly lower this morning; Intel is 6%.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told Asian nations this morning that the Obama administration was committed to having a strong dollar. The dollar has recently hit a 15-month low on soaring budget deficits, reports Reuters.

The FDIC has ordered banks to prepay $45 billion in order to rebuild its deposit fund. The enormous rate of bank failures this year has drained the coffers, says Alison Vekshin for Bloomberg. The failures have led to a deficit in the fund for the first time since 1991.

For more stories on banks, visit our financial category.

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Target (NYSE: TGT) and Amazon (NasdaqGS: AMZN) are engaged in an online price war over DVDs, reports Jeremy Hobson for Maretplace. (How name brands are boosting consumer staples).

Wal-Mart lowered prices of popular DVDs to $10 in hopes that the low prices would help draw customers to shop at their site and buy big-ticket items. Not to be bested, Amazon is offering DVDs at $9.99, but Wal-Mart countered with a $9.98 offer. (Internet ETF to capture holiday shopping climate)

Jeff Dotson, marketing teacher at Vanderbilt University, says these companies are operating on thin margins, and if enough copies of DVDs are sold, the companies can take a hit. Frank Luby, pricing expert at Simon Kutcher and Partners, argues the online retailers are taking a necessary hit in order to obtain the title of “lowest-priced retailer.”

For more information on the retail sector, visit our retail category.

• First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index (NYSEArca: FDN): currently up 67.5% year-to-date; AMZN is 5.6%

• Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSEArca: VCR): up 37.3% year-to-date; TGT is 3.0%, AMZN is 2.8%

• Retail HOLDRs (AMEX: RTH): up 24.3% year-to-date; WMT is 20.2%, TGT is 8.5%, AMZN is 7.3%

Max Chen contributed to this article.

Among the utilities banding together include New Jersey’s Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE: PEG), FPL (NYSE: FPL) and PNM Resources (NYSE: PNM). On top of that, some retailers have joined in, including The Gap (NYSE: GPS); Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and PG&E (NYSE: PCG) left the Chamber and Nike (NYSE: NKE) has quit the board.

Cassandra Sweet for The Wall Street Journal reports that the new group is formed by utility companies across the United States. The goal is for Congress to enact a strong climate-change  legislation, and as one CEO puts it, it’s not about just a few associations saying “stop this.” (10 ways to play Obama’s energy plan).

Today, 10 of the 12 Democrats on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee supported the measure to reduce U.S. greenhouse emissions through a cap-and-trade bill. Simon Lomax for Bloomberg reports that Senate Democrats won approval over Republicans, who feel the plan is being rushed.

For more stories about utilities, visit our utility category.

• iShares Dow Jones U.S. Utilities (NYSEArca: IDU): up 2% year-to-date;  PEG 3.6%; FPL 4.5%; PCG 3.6%

• Vanguard Utilities ETF (NYSEArca: VPU): up 0.9% year-to-date; FPL 5.2%; PCG 3.5%

• iShares S&P Global Utilities (JXI): down 1% year-to-date; FPL 2.3% FPL; PCG 1.7%

• PowerShares Dynamic Utilities (NYSEArca: PUI): down 4.9% year-to-date; FPL 4.6%

• iShares S&P Global Nuclear Energy Index (NYSEArca: NUCL): up 30.6% year-to-date; FPL 5%

• PowerShares Dynamic Retail (NYSEArca: PMR): up 20.8% year-to-date; GPS 5.7%

The Labor Department has reported that the number of newly laid-off workers last week dropped to 512,000, the lowest point since January. It’s also 4,000 fewer than what economists had forecast. The report has a downside, though: worker productivity in the third quarter rocketed by 9.5%. This means that employers are becoming more efficient and more productive, so companies will have little reason to hire more, report Martin Crutsinger and Christopher S. Rugaber for the Associated Press.

The European Central Bank kept interest rates at a record low today, as expected. Later, the bank’s president will hold a press conference that many expect will give hints as to when the ECB will begin to cut back on bank lending and whether it intends to charge them more for 12-month money, reports Jana Randow for Bloomberg. iShares MSCI EMU (NYSEArca: EZU) is up about 1.5% this morning. (How Europe can keep the ball rolling).

The outlook for retailers brightened somewhat in October. Chain-store sales notched their second consecutive gain, and it was the best performance for the industry in more than a year. The industry reported an overall 1.8% sales jump at stores open for at least a year, reports Stephanie Rosenbloom for The New York Times. Not entirely surprisingly, chains that sell designer brands at a discount were the strongest performers. SPDR S&P Retail (NYSEArca: XRT) is down about 0.7% this morning. (Brand names boost consumer staples).

Climate legislation received a boost today as Senate Democrats received approval of a cap-and-trade bill that aims to reduce U.S. greenhouse gases. Republicans object to the legislation because they feel that it’s being rushed, reports Simon Lomax for Bloomberg. The House bill seeks to reduce emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020; the Senate bill is calling for a deeper cut of 20%. iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index (Nasdaq: ICLN) is up nearly 2% this morning.

For full disclosure, Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of EZU.