Crop scientists fear the Ug99 fungus could wipe out more than 80% of worldwide wheat crops as it spreads from eastern Africa. It’s the number one threat to the world’s most widely grown crop.

Word is that the fungus has already traveled the Red Sea, and experts are saying that Northern India and Pakistan are next. Karen Kaplan for The Los Angeles Times reports that the wind will transfer it to China and Russia, and eventually North America, unless it travels by human first.

Fear that the fungus will cause widespread damage has caused short-term price spikes on world wheat markets. Although famine has been avoided, it is still a possibility in the long run. The major goal is to create a new wheat variety that is immune to Ug99. Estimates are that 19% of the world’s crop is already in danger.

These fears aren’t just idle ones. There have been very damaging past outbreaks. The so-called Stem rust destroyed more than 20% of U.S. wheat crops several times between 1917 and 1935, and losses reached nearly 9% twice in the 1950s. The last major outbreak was seen in 1962, which took out 5.2% of U.S. crops.

• PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA): up 0.80% year-to-date; holds 25% wheat

• ELEMENTS MLCX Grains Index ETN (GRU): down 0.5% year-to-date

For more stories on agricultural commodities, visit our agriculture category.

In twelve months, food costs have risen 117% with products such as basic foods like beans up 45% and pork up 27%, writes Matthew Bretherton for Money. True, inflation has slowed, but that’s primarily on the falling oil and gas prices.

We throw away food in the millions of tons, much of it is still safe to eat, but now we are less apt to throw away comestibles. A greater number of people are starting to take up this trend and we are starting to turn back to the kitchen stoves once more instead of buying ready meals.

“Inferior” food substitutes and comfort foods, such as baked beans or white bread, are on the rise as shoppers try to find the best amount of food for a bargain. Products past “best before” dates are also being bought up at dirt cheap prices at that long forgotten corner of the market. It should be worth remembering that these dates are guidelines only, but common sense should also dictate a shopper’s decision.

By sticking to a less opulent food plan, consumers may save money, cut food waste, and maybe eat healthier.

ETFs that provide investors a window into food prices and agriculture include:

• Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO): a global agriculture market ETF, down 3.3% year-to-date
• PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA): a futures contracts-based ETF, down 4.7% year-to-date
• iPath Dow Jones AIG-Agriculture (JJA): down 1.7% year-to-date
• E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Agriculture (UAG): down 29.5% since April 1 inception
• ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Agriculture (RJA): down 2.8% year-to-date
• ELEMENTS-Linked to MLCX Grains Index (GRU): down 40.8% since Feb. 15 inception
• PowerShares Dynamic Food and Beverage (PBJ): down 6.1% year-to-date
• E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Food (FUD): down 25.2% since April 4 inception

Lately, have you noticed your grocery bill going way up, even if your cart isn’t way full? In the United States alone, the cost of groceries went up at an annualized rate of 8.4% for July. Even though commodity prices are falling, do not expect the food prices to start lowering, especially because of globalization, there are many more middle class families worldwide to compete with, says Sean Broderick for Money And Markets.

Food is something we will always need, and like energy, we use it up. Here in America, it may feel like we have the security of plentiful, affordable food. But Brodrick points this out: U.S. consumers spend roughly 15% of every dollar on food. In China, 30% of consumer income is spent on food. In India, it’s closer to 35% or even 40%. And these are relatively “rich” countries. When people begin running out of food, where do you think they will travel to?

Surging demand for food is already making waves around the world, and this is a problem that is going to persist and get more intense as time goes on.

Today, the Department of Agriculture cut its forecast for this year’s corn and soybean harvests because of drought. Because corn will be about 12.1 billion bushels (down from the estimated 12.3 billion last month) and soybeans will be at 2.93 billion bushes (down from 2.97 billion last month), the result could be higher commodity prices.

The corn crop will be 8% below last year’s, while the soybean crop would be 13% higher, reports Christopher S. Rugaber for the Associated Press. Even so, this year’s corn crop would be the second largest on record, while the soybean crop would be the fourth largest.

ETFs give two ways for investors to access food prices and the boom in agriculture: by investing in futures, or investing in companies that produce such products.

Among the ETFs available that enable investors to do this include:

• PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA), down 1.9% year-to-date
• iPath Dow Jones AIG-Agriculture (JJA), down 7.4% year-to-date
• ELEMENTS-Linked to MLCX Grains Index (GRU), down 17.9% since Feb. 15 inception
• Market Vectors Agriculture (MOO), down 26.3% year-to-date
• E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Food (FUD), down 6.4% since April 4 inception

They’re down now, but will a reversal in the general markets change that? Stay tuned.

School cafeteria budgets are getting squeezed, and as evidence that no good deed goes unpunished, it’s probably because they’re trying to serve the kids well-balanced, nutritious lunches. Steve Henn for Marketplace reports that putting all those healthy options on one plate is getting pricey.

For example, Arlington, VA, serves 10,000 cartons of milk a day. The cost for one of those 8-oz. cartons rose by 10 cents last year, sending the school district into the red.

Many schools at the very least want their lunch programs to support themselves, or even turn a profit. Some school food service directors are even willing to sell junk food if that’s what it takes to make ends meet. In most states, that’s not illegal even though things like Snickers don’t meet federal dietary guidelines.

Food prices have stepped back from their highs, but their cost continues to put a crimp on many budgets. Affected ETFs:

• iPath DJ AIG Agriculture Total Return Sub-Index (JJA), down 2.4% year-to-date
• E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Food (FUD), down 1.6% since April 4 inception
• ELEMENTS MCLX Grains Index (GRU), down 13.4% since Feb. 15 inception
• PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA), up 2.9% year-to-date

After a 27-year break, the country has started buying our wheat again. It’s a sign of the limited options for importers who want high-quality grain, say Tom Polansek and Louise Radnofsky for the Wall Street Journal. Their timing is good, too: wheat production is expected to be slightly higher after good weather followed up damaging flooding in the Midwest.

Since June 1, Iran has purchased more than one million tons of hard red winter wheat, and it’s described as a “very large amount.” The size of the purchases mean the 3% to 4% of U.S. wheat exports are going to a country we haven’t done business with in more than a quarter-century.

Iran has been hit hard by drought, slashing their own production by one-third this year. The fact that they came to the United States to buy their wheat shows how dire the situation is, since the two countries are locked in a battle over their nuclear program.

Iran had been a major wheat importer as recently as 2001-02. The last time it come from us was in 1981-82.

The United States is the largest exporter of wheat for the market years 2008-09. Canada, the European Union, Australia and Russia round out the top five.

• iPath DJ AIG Agriculture Total Return Sub-Index (JJA), up 6.6% year-to-date
• DB Agriculture Double Long (DAG), down 12.1% since April 15 launch
• DB Agriculture Double Short (AGA), up 0.3% since April 15 launch
• E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Food (FUD), up 7.3% since April 4 launch
• ELEMENTS MCLX Grains Index (GRU), down 2.3% since Feb. 15 launch

There has been a commodities selloff in recent weeks, but analysts say that this may not be the case for much longer, reports Sarah McFarlane for the Wall Street Journal. At the end of the day, after all, ya gotta eat, right?

It isn’t entirely clear if the recent weakness in prices means that investor sentiment toward wheat, soybeans and the like have changed, or if it’s the increased size of this year’s crop. Since the end of June, prices have fallen between 20% and 35%. Figures from last week, however, show that despite the size of the crop, global demand is rising quickly enough to justify high prices.

Meanwhile, gold continues to fluctuate along with oil and other commodities prices. It’s up this morning on news of a weakening dollar and rising oil, but experts predict that gold is headed for its sixth-straight losing week, says Pham-Duy Nguyen for Bloomberg.  Gold is currently about 25% off its record high of $1,033.90, reached on March 17 of this year. The last time it fell for six straight weeks was in May 2004.

Affected ETFs include:

• E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Food (FUD), down 1.4% since April 4 inception
• ELEMENTS MLCX Grains Index TR (GRU), down 12.1% since Feb. 15 inception
• PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA), up 3.8% year-to-date
• SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), down 5.9% year-to-date
• iShares Silver Trust (SLV), down 4.3% year-to-date

After flooding this summer, farmers in the Midwest staged a nice rally. They’re now on pace to produce the second largest corn crop and fourth largest soybean crop in history, says the Associated Press. Corn hit a record $8 a bushel earlier this year, and is now at $5 a bushel. It’s still higher than the 2006 prices, which stood at $2 a bushel.

The soybean crop is forecast to fall slightly, but the prices are still expected to drop. Wheat production is predicted to be slightly higher, also causing prices to dip a little.

Falling prices could deliver a dose of relief to farmers who rely on corn and soybeans for feed. High prices for grains have almost eliminated profits for chicken and beef companies this year.

It hasn’t been the best of times for commodity ETFs these last few weeks, and it has some asking if it’s time to stick a fork in them. One advisor tells investors not to panic, because much of the losses are reflective of a stronger dollar. But even with a strengthening dollar, there could still be room for commodities to resume the uptick.

Some commodity ETFs are off their highs into the double digits. The PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) has dropped off by 21.3%, although it’s up 1.4% year-to-date. The fund holds futures in soybeans, wheat, corn and sugar.

Just because commodities are falling here doesn’t mean that it’s the same everywhere, though. In many developing countries, inhabitants are looking for ways to boost their own production and make some money.

Honduras is one country that has taken matters into its own hands and has become a cross-section view of the global food situation, according to Morning Edition on NPR. On the one hand, there are fields of lush and green genetically engineered corn. On the other are low-income families that joke (we hope) that they’ll have to eat one another if they become too hungry.

After farmers endured years of neglect by the government, the country is now trying to reverse the food shortage and feed its people by putting more money into food production.

Agriculture ETFs that could be affected:

• iPath DJ AIG Agriculture Total Return Sub-Index (JJA), down 4.1% year-to-date
• DB Agriculture Double Long (DAG), down 31.6% since April 15 launch
• DB Agriculture Double Short (AGA), up 24% since April 15 launch
• E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Food (FUD), down 2.8% since April 4 launch
• ELEMENTS MCLX Grains Index (GRU), down 15.1% since Feb. 15 launch

For years, the countries in North Africa have drained aquifers, sucked the salt from seawater and diverted the Nile River in order to make deserts bloom, says Andrew Martin for the New York Times. The projects to do so were so expensive that importing food was more practical, and today, some countries import at least 90% of their staples.

The global food crisis today is making that a whole lot less practical, and those countries are rethinking the old ways they’ve done things.

The population of this region has more than quadrupled since 1950, to 364 million, and is expected to reach 600 million by 2050. That’s going to cut heavily into an already-scarce water supply.

Since the world markets can no longer be as relied-upon, the countries are developing new and expensive schemes to maintain the food supply. One country is growing rice in solar-powered greenhouses, fed by groundwater and cooled with seawater. The project has been called by a World Bank economist as “probably the most expensive rice on earth.”

This New York Times image shows that the fastest-growing places on earth are also among the world’s driest areas, further putting a crimp on supplies.

(Click for a larger version)

As these countries work to find cost-effective solutions to the problem of rising costs and dwindling resources, some ETFs might see their numbers shift, including:

• iShares S&P Global Infrastructure (IGF), down 15.2% year-to-date
• Macquerie/First Trust Global Infrastructure/Utilities Dividend Income Fund (MFD), down 19.4% year-to-date
• PowerShares Water Resources (PHO), down 4% year-to-date
• Claymore S&P Global Water (CGW), down 11.2% year-to-date
• MLCX Grains Index (GRU), down 4.4% year-to-date
• PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA), up 12.4% year-to-date