Crop and trade forecasts issued by the U.S. Agriculture Department look promising, which has led many to expect a slow and steady recovery in the agricultural sector, reports Angie Pointer for The Wall Street Journal.

• The USDA has projected that farm income will rise nearly 12% to $63 billion in 2010.
• Food inflation is below 2007-2008 levels, but that’s expected to end this year as prices for meat, milk and other commodities see price increases. [Oil and Gas Plays for Rising Energy Prices.]
• It expects a 9% increase in U.S. beef exports and a 9% rise in pork exports.
• Land planted to cotton is estimated to surge 15%, with U.S. cotton exports expected to increase by 5%, and global cotton consumption could expand by 2.6% this year, according to the USDA.
• The livestock sector could be a driver for economic and jobs growth if the farm economy benefits from the broader economic recovery. [Metals ETFs Are Leading the Charge.]

There are a variety of ETFs and exchange traded notes (ETNs) that can get you exposure to agriculture, whether you want to go broad with a fund that holds a host of commodities or narrow with a cotton fund. Note that ETNs are debt instruments backed by the credit of the issuer. [Differences Between ETFs and ETNs.]

For more information on agriculture, visit our agriculture category.

• PowerShares DB Agriculture (NYSEArca: DBA)

• UBS E-TRACS CMCI Food TR ETN (NYSEArca: FUD)

• UBS E-TRACS CMCI Agriculture TR ETN (NYSEArca: UAG)

• UBS E-TRACS CMCI Livestock TR ETN (NYSEArca: UBC)

• ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Agri ETN (NYSEArca: RJA)

• iPath DJ-UBS Agriculture TR Sub-Idx ETN (NYSEArca: JJA)

• iPath DJ-UBS Cotton (NYSEArca: BAL)

• iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (NYSEArca: GSG)

Max Chen contributed to this article.

It’s time to count all of your blessings. This Thanksgiving may bring about the gratitude of many more people as they go back to the basics and analyze what matters. Craig Ford for Bible Money Matters has four ways to develop your thankful side this holiday, in case you haven’t already:

1. Focus on what you have. Thankful people focus on what they have, not what they do not. Don’t focus on your neighbor’s car or your boss’s financial returns. Look at what you have and relish it.
2. Admit you may have more than you deserve. The fact of the matter is that many of us may have more than we need, and many people have more than they can ever use.
3. Being thankful is knowing that it is something you develop. Unfortunately, many of us think that we are made thankful. It’s something we develop over time. If you decide to be thankful when you get “x” then probably once you get that item you actually will just want something more. It takes practice.
4. Gauge blessing by something other than money. Money is one way we are blessed as individuals, but there’s so much more. For starters, think about family, friends, health, children and the earth. These things do not come from money.

Meanwhile, if thoughts of portfolios are swirling in your head, remember that the ETFs to play Thanksgiving may have more to do with the belly. According to Big Sky Business Journal, the classic Thanksgiving dinner will cost less this year. For 2009, the total cost of t he traditional Thanksgiving dinner is 4% less than what it was in 2008. Turkey, stuffing, cranberries, pumpkin pie and all the trimmings, for a family of 10, will cost an average of $42.91 — $1.70 less than last year.

AFBF Livestock Economist Jim Sartwelle said despite retail price increases during the last year or so, American consumers have enjoyed relatively stable food costs over the years, particularly when adjusted for inflation. (Read about how food and beverage ETFs are benefiting from this market).

For more stories about food and beverages, visit our food and beverage category.

ETFs that may be thankful:

• PowerShares Dynamic Food and Beverage (NYSEArca: PBJ): up 9.1% year-to-date

• UBS E-TRACS CMCI Food TR ETN (NYSEArca: FUD): up 14% year-to-date

• PowerShares DB Agriculture (NYSEArca: DBA): down 0.6% year-to-date

The primary reason that agriculture is gaining attention is the basic imbalance in supply and demand: populations continue to expand and food production continues to decline.  The Economist states that there are other causes for the imbalance, as well:

• Changing appetites. As economies gain strength, there’s a tendency to adopt a more Western diet.
• Rising incomes in emerging markets. Richer citizens can afford to eat more food.
• The competition of land between the development of biofuels and food crops and the decline in yield growth in cereals. (Other reasons agriculture attracts assets).

Food prices have risen 9.8% in the first 10 months of the year and “breakfast commodities” are trading at a 30-year high. (Other commodities to look at).

The importance of agriculture is not lost on governments. Agriculture and food security have become the backbone of talks between global leaders as the World Bank increased its spending on agriculture by 50% to $6 billion in 2009. For the first time, the Islamic Development Bank is creating an agriculture department. (Some things to consider when playing agriculture ETFs).  Lastly, countries like the Philippines and India are throwing government money to farmers to aid them in improving crop production and bumping up efficiency. (More on India).

For more stories on agriculture, visit our agriculture category.

The agricultural imbalance opens up investment opportunities for many. Among the ETFs to play it are:

• PowerShares DB Agriculture (NYSEArca: DBA): down 0.6% year-to-date.

• Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSEArca: MOO): up 53.2% year-to-date

• Market Vectors Hard Asset Producers (NYSEArca: HAP): up 40.5% year-to-date

• E-Tracs UBS Bloomberg CMCI Food ETN (NYSEArca: FUD): up 14% year-to-date

Kevin Grewal contributed to this article.

Although a slight drop in demand has been seen in the markets for cocoa, the commodity has risen to levels seen not seen in months. Worldwide, production is down, although cocoa is still used frequently. We eat it, drink it and use it as gifts, for comfort and for treats.

Julian Murdoch for Hard Assets Investor reports that cocoa futures have gained 20% since July, and despite some volatility, prices are poised to climb further. The world’s top five cocoa producers are Ivory Coast, Ghana, Indonesia, Nigeria and Cameroon. These five countries are responsible for roughly 70% of global cocoa production each year. Rain and disease, however, could interrupt production.

The Ivory Coast has been riddled with black pod disease that has affected crops, as has too much rain. If this continues, it could support the levels at which prices currently reside.

Meanwhile, sugar has been jarring retailers who want to keep consumers spending. For that reason, some retailers haven’t raised prices and have absorbed the extra cost themselves in order to keep shoppers buying candy and other sugar-heavy products, reports Karen Robinson-Jacobs for The Dallas Morning News.

The average price of a bag of sugar has gone up 9.2% from a year ago, and sugar futures are up 70% since April.

• iPath Dow Jones AIG Cocoa ETN (NYSEArca: NIB): up 12.7% year-to-date

• iPath Dow Jones AIG Sugar ETN (NYSEArca: SGG): up 63.8% year-to-date

For more stories about cocoa, visit our cocoa category.

Mitchell Hartmen for Marketplace reports that a steep drop in energy prices and a drop in demand has edged food prices lower over the course of the recession. But if you’ve gotten comfortable, this trend could end as soon as the economy recovers, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Farmers will be paying more for fertilizer and fuel and it’s predicted that this increased cost will eventually make it onto shelves, taking food prices up 2%-3%. A few commodities that could be impacted include:

• Soybeans. Tight supply of these beans has the prices of futures edging up already, up 2.2%. Lisa Shumaker for Forbes explains that soybean futures rose 23-3/4 cents to close at $11.14-1/4 a bushel Thursday. The new-crop November contract slipped 1/2 cent to settle at $9.96 a bushel. Strength in the cash market sparked the rally in the nearby soybean contract.

• Corn. Corn is in a mixed situation; the supply is high, which has both the supplier and the buyer in a good position. Rick Plumlee for The Chicago Tribune reports that corn prices for December delivery are trading for less than $3.50 a bushel, much less than one year ago.

• Sugar. Mark J. Perry for Seeking Apha reports that sugar may be a great value for the producers, but the consumers may not like the taste of higher prices. As a result of trade restrictions on imported sugar coming into the United States at the world price, the U.S. sugar beet producers are benefiting. In the United States, buyers pay twice the amount, 26.6 cents for domestic sugar from beets vs. 13.1 cents for sugar from cane.

Just a few of your ETF options when it comes to playing the agriculture sector:

• PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA): down 1.6% year-to-date; holds sugar, corn, soybean and wheat futures

For more stories about agriculture, visit our agriculture category.

The food plan initiative, part of the Group of 8’s Summit meeting, grew from a $15 billion project over three years to $20 billion. Peter Baker for The New York Times reports that Obama did clarify that whether or not developed nations have an obligation to help Africa, the continent of nations has to build “transparent, efficient institutions.”

Some of the highlights in the G8’s food plan, mentioned by Roger Runningen for The Age:

• A three-year program of up to $20 billion  in agricultural investments to help the world’s poor farmers grow and sell more food
• The initiative would be funded by G8 countries and international organizations, including the World Bank, along with other nations and emerging markets to help support the cause
• A “shift” from food aid, this plan is intended to provide assistance to help the countries themselves  put in place the right policies to be able to produce food by themselves
• Overall hunger reduction and creation of economic growth while sustaining producing natural resource bases

The effort could affect at least three ETFS, and potentially more if it proves to be successful:

• Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO): up 18.7% year-to-date; the plan could step up demand from producers

• PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA): down 7.6% year-to-date;  this ETF holds futures for the staples of diets around the world – corn, wheat, sugar and soybeans

• E TRACS  UBS Bloomberg CMCI Food ETN (FUD): up 1.4% year-to-date;  tracks an index of 11 agricultural futures contracts and two livestock futures contracts. (Note that ETNs differ from ETFs).

For more stories about agriculture, visit our agriculture category.

One of the more common misunderstandings of investing in the commodity world is what commodity funds actually hold, explains Gary Gordon of ETF Expert.

While ETFs and ETNs have made the investment process easier, it helps to know exactly what you’re investing in to avoid surprises. It also helps to explore all of your options, as well, because in some cases, a fund that invests in commodity producers may be performing better than the commodity itself.

Take Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) as an example. Year-to-date, it’s up 9.8%, while SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is up 5.9%.

The types of commodity funds available include:

• ETFs that invest in companies. Examples of this are the aforementioned GDX. It also includes Market Vectors Steel (SLX), iShares S&P Global Energy (IXC) and Claymore S&P Global Water (CGW). In these funds, you’re investing in companies that are in some way involved in the production of these commodities, rather than futures or the commodities themselves.
• ETFs that hold futures. These include United States Oil (USO), PowerShares DB Gold (DGL) and iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG). An advantage to owning these types of funds is the fact that rolling over futures contracts is handled for you.
• ETFs that hold the physical commodity. This includes iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU). These ETFs eliminate the hassle and expense of owning and storing a physical commodity.
• Commodity ETNs. Commodity ETNs are the same as other ETNs in that they’re debt obligations backed by the full faith and credit of the issuer. Types of these include iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index (DJP) and E-TRACS UBS Boomberg CMCI Food ETN (FUD). Look at the underlying index to see how it’s constructed – for example, FUD’s index is a basket of agriculture and livestock futures.

This is by no means a complete listing of all these types of funds. When you’re looking into commodity ETFs, check to see what it holds so you know what you’re getting, how it stacks up performance-wise against other ETFs targeting the same commodity and follow the trend lines using an entry and exit strategy.

For the rundown on the differences between most of the commodity funds, check out this commodity report we ran last month.

For more stories on commodities, visit out our commodity category.

In twelve months, food costs have risen 117% with products such as basic foods like beans up 45% and pork up 27%, writes Matthew Bretherton for Money. True, inflation has slowed, but that’s primarily on the falling oil and gas prices.

We throw away food in the millions of tons, much of it is still safe to eat, but now we are less apt to throw away comestibles. A greater number of people are starting to take up this trend and we are starting to turn back to the kitchen stoves once more instead of buying ready meals.

“Inferior” food substitutes and comfort foods, such as baked beans or white bread, are on the rise as shoppers try to find the best amount of food for a bargain. Products past “best before” dates are also being bought up at dirt cheap prices at that long forgotten corner of the market. It should be worth remembering that these dates are guidelines only, but common sense should also dictate a shopper’s decision.

By sticking to a less opulent food plan, consumers may save money, cut food waste, and maybe eat healthier.

ETFs that provide investors a window into food prices and agriculture include:

• Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO): a global agriculture market ETF, down 3.3% year-to-date
• PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA): a futures contracts-based ETF, down 4.7% year-to-date
• iPath Dow Jones AIG-Agriculture (JJA): down 1.7% year-to-date
• E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Agriculture (UAG): down 29.5% since April 1 inception
• ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Agriculture (RJA): down 2.8% year-to-date
• ELEMENTS-Linked to MLCX Grains Index (GRU): down 40.8% since Feb. 15 inception
• PowerShares Dynamic Food and Beverage (PBJ): down 6.1% year-to-date
• E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Food (FUD): down 25.2% since April 4 inception

But what kind of implications is a matter of much debate.

Californians voted yes on the proposition to free around 20 million egg-laying hens from their tiny cages, but the farmers are the ones with their feathers ruffled. For months farmers had contended that the measure would drive up egg prices or even put them out of business because of the high cost of retrofitting their farms with cage-free facilities, report Carla Hall and Jerry Hirsch for The LA Times.

California already imports around one-third of their eggs from farms outside the state, which are not subject to these limitations, so most suspect there will not be any jump in egg prices. The measure does not take effect until 2015, either, so there is plenty of time for farmers to shore up and retrofit their farms. Typically, eggs from cage-free hens cost at least 25% more than conventional aggs.

The measure also bans confining crates and cages for hens, pregnant pigs and veal calves that don’t allow the animals to turn around, lie down and extend their limbs. The largest pork producer here already went crate-free and there are few veal producers in California.

Many of the larger fast food chains, such as Burger King and Denny’s already use cage-free eggs.

• MLCX Livestock ELEMENTS ETN (LSO), down 16.5% since April 15 inception

• E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg Food (FUD), down 25.7% since April 4 inception

The largest gold ETF shot up 11.6% along with prices – the biggest one-day gain ever. Investors are fearing more tightening of the credit markets, and they’re reacting quickly, says Stevenson Jacobs for the Associated Press.

Gold is attractive at times like these, because it’s known for holding its value.

Among other commodities, oil rebounded after several days of losses, while heating oil and gas futures both fell. Among agriculture commodities, most grain prices are trading higher, while soybeans fell slightly.

Affected ETFs include:

• SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), up 3.8% year-to-date
• United States Heating Oil (UHN), up 14.7% since April 10 inception
• United States Gasoline (UGA), down 3.2% since Feb. 28 inception
• PowerShares DB Oil (DBO), up 6.3% year-to-date
• PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA), down 0.8% year-to-date
• E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Food (FUD), down 11.7% since April 4 inception

Meanwhile, while the dollar rose yesterday after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, today it’s fallen back some against both the yen and euro, reports Elaine Fei for Investment Markets. The dollar was also hurt by news about the housing market, which stated that home construction had fallen to its slowest pace in 17 years.

The PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) is up 3.1% year-to-date.

For full disclosure, some of Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of UUP.