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1. 

   craig7
   Member

   This is what I said in the last update, “I have labeled the Elliott Wave count for TBT correction from the 11/6/09 high as a double zig-zag. If I am correct in my count, the 11/30/09 low must hold support. A break out above the 11/23/09 high will confirm the correction is over. The 11/23/09 high is the wave-B high and a break of that high rules out an impulsive five-wave pattern down to lower lows.”

   The 11/23/09 high has been broken and I can count five waves up from the 11/30/09 low. With that said, I can expect a small correction from here (emphasis on small).

   The previous fourth wave is where many corrections find support. That would be around the 47.00 level. What other facts could potentially make this a good stop for a short-term correction?

   The 50% Fibonacci retracement level is 46.67. The 55 EMA is also near that level. There is also an unfilled gap at the 38.2% retracement level at 47.24. Does this mean that the price cannot go higher from current levels? No, the price can extend from current levels before it makes its wave 2 correction. That would be a good thing!

   Signs that a potential trend change is taking place are the facts that the price and 13 EMA is now above the 55 EMA. Will it stay that way? We will see. We do need to see the price to break out above the 233 EMA.

   http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/tbt.html

   Posted 3 months ago #
2. 

   craig7
   Member

   TBT gapped up at the open today and it broke the previous high. TBT has made it to the 233 EMA and we will have to wait and see how strong the resistance will be.

   http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/tbt.html

   Posted 3 months ago #
3. 

   craig7
   Member

   I have Elliott Wave labels on the chart showing my interpretation of the count. This is significant due to the price moving above the previous high. Wave-I topped 11/6/09 and wave-II bottomed 11/30/09. Now we have wave-1 and wave-2 complete as shown on the chart. That means that wave-3 of wave-III is at hand. This indicates that the move higher will be intense.

   Notice the gaps the last two days. This is normal due to the above-mentioned situation. The price may not fill these gaps for a long time.

   I have placed Fibonacci Price Extension Lines using the wave-I and II, which is not shown on the chart. I have also placed Fibonacci Price Extension Lines using wave 1 and 2. The 161.8% price extension line from both rests at the 54.75 level. This is where I believe wave-3 will top. After that, there will be a wave-5 top, which will be wave-III. Then wave-V will be next. I expect the price to reach the 65 level minimum when it reaches the top of wave-V.

   I know that is well above the current price. It will not happen overnight, but I do expect it to get there eventually. Time will prove me right or wrong.

   http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/tbt.html

   Posted 2 months ago #
4. 

   craig7
   Member

   TBT has continued to make higher highs. It even poked its head above the 233 EMA for a couple of days. It is only the beginning.

   I will continue the discussion of the Elliott Wave analysis from the last update from 12/22/09. TBT keeps moving higher and higher. As you can see from the chart, we now can count waves I and II, waves 1 and 2, and so far wave-i. We could be complete with wave ii or may need one more push lower to complete the pattern. For the bullish case to continue standing, the wave-2 low of 12/18/09 cannot be broken.

   I cannot express in enough words to you the significance of the above analysis. If my count is correct, it implies that wave iii of 3 of III is about to begin. That set up in Elliott Wave analysis is what makes trends and strong ones at that, especially with the degree of wave count. If my count is correct, the rise from current levels will be fast and it will be furious. It will be intense as people recognize that interest rates are really heading higher instead of speculating they will move higher.

   How high can the price go? I can give you an approximate answer based on Fibonacci analysis. A target price of 56.86 is achieved by multiplying the move of waves 1 and 2 by 1.618 and adding it to the high price of wave-1. Do the same for waves I and II will give you a target price of 58.03. Therefore, now we have an idea about where to take profits!

   Do not look at the MACD or Slow Stochastic! It will cause you to doubt it can go any higher right now. I do not use indicators for buy or sell signals. I only use them to signal divergences and warnings of pending changes in trend. So far, the indicators have been moving higher with the price. At some point, the indicators will start giving us a warning that a temporary top may be around the corner, maybe around the 56 or 58 levels. We should only worry about that when it gets here.

   http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/tbt.html

   Posted 2 months ago #
5. 

   craig7
   Member

   If you had been following my Elliott Wave counts, the recent pull back did not surprise you. You should have expected it. So far, TBT is in wave ii of 3 of III. I can see where wave ii could be complete when viewing the 15-minute chart. If that analysis is correct, the price should rally tomorrow or the next day and not look back for weeks.

   My count could be wrong and you need to prepare for that. The critical level for my analysis is the 12/18/09 low. I know that is almost too many points to give back if the trade goes sour. However, the reason that level is critical is that that date was wave-2. A drop below that level will cancel the anticipated impulsive wave and break the Elliott Wave rules. Wave-ii cannot retrace more than 100% of wave-i. A drop below wave-2 means there will not be a wave-3.

   What helps support my analysis? First is the horizontal support that crosses the 49.00 level. That level has been strong resistance before and therefore, should be good support now that the price is above it.

   Second, that level is also near the 50% retracement level for wave-i. Retracement of 50% is common for most pullbacks.

   Third, the price has dropped to the previous wave four of wave-i. I do not show that count on the chart. However, the previous wave four is usually a good stopping point for a pullback.

   Fourth, the price has tipped its toe back into the TAZ. TAZ is usually an area that the price will turn back around. Since we have the other factors listed above, the resumption of wave iii should start tomorrow or the next day.

   http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/tbt.html

   Posted 2 months ago #
6. 

   craig7
   Member

   TBT has had a significant pullback since the 1/11/10 high. It has fallen back below the 233 EMA and the 55 EMA. The correction looks to be complete and is in a position to resume the rally to higher highs.

   The corrective process from the 1/11/10 high apparently was not complete. However, the Elliott Wave count has not changed much. The count is the completion of wave 2 of III. Waves 3, 4, and 5 are forthcoming. It is just that the wave 2 wanted to move lower. I can see where wave 2 should now be complete when viewing the 15-minute chart. If that analysis is correct, the price should start rallying and head to higher highs immediately.

   There are three waves down form the 1/11/10 high. The price will invalidate my analysis if it makes another move up then down, making a five-wave impulsive pattern.

   There is good horizontal support underneath the 1/21/10 low. That level is also on the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level.

   So, what will be the signs that the correction is over? The price must stay above the 1/21/10 low. A break above the wave-b of wave 2 high made on 1/13/10 will confirm that the move down to the 1/21/10 low was a three wave corrective pattern. Of course, a break above the 1/11/10 high will definitely confirm that the correction is over.

   The price must clear two resistance levels before we see a resumption of wave 3. The first is surrounding the top of today’s price action as I am writing this update. The next resistance level is the 1/14/10 low. The price should move higher with conviction once these levels are broken.

   Posted 1 month ago #
7. 

   craig7
   Member

   2/11/10

   Interest rates continue to move higher. As a matter-of-fact, the move off the 2/5/10 lows is impulsive indicating that the next significant move is up in the direction of the main trend. There are seven waves up off the 2/5/10 low, which indicates that the first wave from that low is not complete as of mid-day trading. It needs one more down-up move to complete the pattern. After that, we can expect a three-wave correction, which the 2/5/10 low must not be broken.

   The reason I mention seven waves up in the above paragraph is the fact Elliott Wave principles indicate that an impulse wave can count 5, 9, and 13 waves in the direction of the main trend. Corrective waves count as 3, 7, and 11 waves and are usually overlapping. Since the move so far to the upside is impulsive and not overlapping is the reason I say the uptrend is resuming. So far, we have seven waves and to rule out a corrective pattern, we must have another down-up move without the price reaching the 2/8/10 high. I know that is a big spread, but the 2/8/10 high is wave one in this move and Elliott Wave rules say wave four cannot trade into the wave one range. The third wave is an extended wave and has five waves within it.

   The critical intermediate support level is the 2/5/10 low and the critical intermediate resistant level is the 1/11/10 high. There are no critical short-term support and resistance levels until the first wave off the 2/5/10 is complete. When complete, I will post those critical short-term levels.

   Posted 1 month ago #
8. 

   craig7
   Member

   TBT has finished the five-wave pattern to the high of 2/18/10. I now expect a decline to continue for another day or so. There is no way I can predict the pattern that will form the correction. However, I can give you price targets. Before that, I will discuss the potential patterns.

   Right now, I can count a wave A down, wave B up, and an incomplete five wave decline for wave C. When wave C is complete, will it complete the correction? The answer would be potentially. The correction could become more complex. When wave C completes, it could be wave A of a larger correction.

   What do we need to look for to give us a hint of what may unfold? A break above the wave B high would be a good signal and a five-wave pattern to the upside will signal the correction is over. A break above the 2/18/10 high will seal the deal and confirm that the next leg up is underway. The price should bounce once wave C is complete, but if the correction is incomplete; we should see another three-wave move to the downside. It could be a double zig-zag, a larger flat, or even a larger triangle unfolding. I will have to keep my eyes on the levels previously mentioned.

   The price has retraced 23.6% the move from the 2/5/10 low. The above-mentioned wave C completion could put the price near the 38.2% retracement level. A more complex pattern could put the price near the 50% retracement level. I want to bring to your attention as to why these levels are significant. Corrections typically target the previous fourth wave price action. The previous third wave topped on 2/11/10 and the previous fourth wave bottomed on 2/16/10. The top of this price action is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The previous fourth wave bottom is the 50% retracement and the apex of the pervious fourth wave is 38.2% retracement. Could the correction fall to the 61.8% level? Yes, of course. However, this area is the most congested price action since the 2/5/10 low and should be significant support for the price.

   I do use fundamental analysis to some degree, mainly to confirm the technical analysis. Last night, the Federal Reserve surprisingly raised the Discount Rate by a quarter of a point. I would not recommend betting on rates dropping any time soon. The old saying “don’t fight the Fed” still holds true. This will also strengthen the dollar. That implicates so many investment vehicles, so be careful and do not get caught with your pants down!

   Posted 1 month ago #

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