ETF Trends

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1. 

   Denny
   Member

   A few months ago ETF Trends began using the 50-day moving average rather than the 200-day. Recent articles seem to indicate the 200-day is now being used, however I don't recall reading anything about switching back. It would be helpful to know how the two strategies have compared to each other.

   Posted 8 months ago #
2. 

   NutSkin
   Member

   http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/movingaverage.asp

   Not sure why the switch from 50 to 200 day (and no explanation). Maybe reliability/accuracy due to volatility?

   Posted 8 months ago #
3. 

   NutSkin
   Member

   Actually, Lydon wrote a blog about how to employ 200-day MA strategies in a blog in July - here's the URL to the post:

   http://www.etftrends.com/2008/07/an-etf-trend-following-plan-for-all-seasons.html

   Posted 8 months ago #
4. 

   Denny
   Member

   It was November 13, 2008 article "ETF Strategies in Volatile Markets". 50-day MA was instituted about that time. Maybe Tom will let us know how it worked out. Markets don't seem to be a whole lot different now, but I believe he is using the 200-day now.

   Posted 8 months ago #
5. 

   Tom
   Member

   It hasn't been since the 1970s that the major market indexes have been so far below their long-term trend lines. We've always been proponents of using the 200-day moving average as your guide. In the past few months, we introduced the concept of using a 50-day moving average for those investors who want a way to participate if the market rebounds.

   The major indicator is the 200-day moving average. It's very simple, but very few ETFs are even close to it!

   Posted 8 months ago #
6. 

   paulo.rego
   Member

   Been using Prorealtime freeware to make some backtesting and accurate my strategy. Maybe using that tool can clarify you about what EMA to use. You may even let the software optimize the period for you. Leave you some examples with BX4(Leverage Short CAC40), LXX(Leverage Short FTSE), SDS(Ultrashort S&P500) and QID(Ultrashort QQQ). The 2 pairs of digits are anual return based on a 11/3/2008 to 11/3/2009 backtest with buying at EMA200 and EMA50 up crossing, 8% stoploss and 8% trailing stop and selling down crossing EMA200: BXA (19%;72%), BXX (31%;65%), SDS (-25%;33%) and QID (-29%;-6%).

   Posted 8 months ago #

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