ETF Trends Forum Topic: USO

ETF Trends Forum Topic: USO http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Keeping a grip on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) en Sat, 26 May 2012 14:53:26 +0000 craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-337 Thu, 11 Feb 2010 11:50:47 +0000 craig7 337@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ 2/11/10 Oil has had a nice bounce off the 2/5/10 low. The wave pattern is somewhat overlapping indicating that the move is corrective. One thing to notice is the degree of the correction. USO has retraced almost 78.6% of the move from the 2/3/10 high. The pattern so far looks like a triple zig-zag, matching what is happening in the Major Index Funds. It look like the corrective pattern may be complete are nearly so during this afternoon’s trading. The critical resistance is not far off from current prices. The 2/3/10 high is critical to the Elliott Wave count I have for USO. The critical support for an indication that the next leg down is resuming is today’s low. A drop below the 2/5/10 low will confirm the next leg down is underway. OIH and UGA have similar patterns and the above comments are duplicated in these funds. USO has had a stronger rebound with UGA having the weakest. OIH has just reached the 61.8% retracement while UGA has only reached the 50% retracement. One more thing to watch for is a break of a trend line. You can connect the lows since the 2/5/10 bottom and you have a defined trend line. The first clue that the next leg down has started will be a break below that trend line. Be a smart trader. Craig Wells craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-322 Wed, 27 Jan 2010 19:31:57 +0000 craig7 322@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ USO continues to fall hard from the 233 EMA. The 13 EMA is now under the 55 EMA. It looks like the trend is heading down. The price has fallen impulsively from the highs, indicating that the trend is now changing to the down side. Even though the Elliott Wave pattern is impulsive, it is not yet complete. The third wave extended and it looks like it needs two more pushes lower before the first leg down completes. Impulse waves have 5 waves, 9 waves, or 13 waves. Right now, we have 10 and need another down, up, and down move to complete it. The 12/11/09 low should be a good level for the price to take a rest. However, with the wave count and the need to make two more moves to lower prices to complete the first wave down, the low of 9/25/09 could be the termination point of the first wave. craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-318 Fri, 22 Jan 2010 15:13:01 +0000 craig7 318@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ It is hard to see where we are in the Elliott Wave count with the decline being so severe. I do believe that a near term bottom is nowhere near at this time. The way the price action has been the last couple of days, the best thing to do is hang on if you have taken action on my recommendation. From what I can tell, the initial wave three down is not even complete. The third wave has been extending with gaps along the way. I will start being a little more cautious about exiting when we get to a near complete five waves down. The near term support levels are 35.14 and 34.70. I may consider taking profits at the first level. It should be a little clearer with a couple more days of trading. craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-315 Mon, 18 Jan 2010 12:02:04 +0000 craig7 315@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Since my focus is on ETFs, I will use USO and others to present my analysis. First thing is that I use Fibonacci numbers as my EMAs. I use the 13, 55, and 233 EMA in my analysis. With that said, viewing the weekly chart the price has failed to breakout above the 55 EMA, again. What makes this more ominous is the fact that there was a Japanese Candlestick Evening Star and Tweezers Top (double top) patterns the last two weeks. UGA (gasoline) had an Evening Star and a Bearish Engulfment candlestick patterns. I use Elliott Wave in my analysis and the price action for USO from the 2/09 lows has been overlapping. This overlapping price action is corrective in nature and indicates that another impulse wave down is coming sometime in the future. I believe it will be in the near future. Now looking at the daily chart, the past week has shown a Bearish Harmai and Bearish Engulfment Candlestick patterns. The price gapped down through the 233 EMA from those reversal patterns and fell hard all last week. Near term, the price is oversold and we could see a pause before continuing the decline. On a daily chart, OIH has painted a 2B top, Dark Cloud Cover Candlestick, and Bearish Engulfment Candlestick this past week. UGA painted a 2B top, Dark Cloud Cover, and two gaps down with a very hard fall from the top. To me, the evidence is too bearish for considering higher prices for the Oil and Gas complex. The price is oversold, but there is no reason it could not stay that way for a little longer. There could be an attempt to fill one of the mentioned gaps. The 1/11/10 high is the critical resistance that must hold if prices are to move lower as I anticipate. My downside targets for USO are 37.00, 36.00 and 34.50. Donato on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-270 Thu, 31 Dec 2009 10:30:53 +0000 Donato 270@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Hi Craig . . . Analysis paralysis perhaps? I really do like to keep things simple. I was waiting for a good entry for a couple of months. All I did was buy in the day after a swing point low, with the stop at the low of that hammer like candle a couple of days before. The truth of the matter is that I rarely get that lucky with my entries! But I was watching and waiting for it . . . I picked oil for fundamental reasons, but I'm a technical trader. So I identified the trend, then waited for a pullback, and made a perfect entry. If I got stopped out, I would have done exactly the same thing again. And again if necessary. Otherwise, I can guarantee you that the moment I gave up on it, it would then shoot to new highs! Good Luck craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-269 Thu, 31 Dec 2009 10:02:22 +0000 craig7 269@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Hi Donato, USO is the one ETF or should I say market, that I am really struggling to get a grip on the chart analysis. No sense in trying to fool anyone, I am really stumped. One thing I will say is that the trend is down and I will stay with that bias until it changes. Oddly enough, I consider OIH as extremely bearish based on Elliott Wave analysis. Can USO go up and OIH go down? I can give you critical levels for the potential direction in price. Critical resistance is 122.37 and support is 118.03. Happy New Year! Donato on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-268 Thu, 31 Dec 2009 09:35:01 +0000 Donato 268@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Hi Denny . . . You are correct. Although my post is entirely factual, you might say it is a trick question. There are so many reasons to hold oil right now, and only one reason for me to sell. Happy New Years Eve! Denny on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-264 Wed, 30 Dec 2009 19:17:18 +0000 Denny 264@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Donato, Putting technicals aside, and considering geo-political concerns going on now, USO may be good to hold on to for awhile. Donato on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-263 Wed, 30 Dec 2009 16:37:06 +0000 Donato 263@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Hi Craig . . . I'm not as technical as you, I just like to buy low and sell high. If I bought on 12-15-09 below 36, where should I sell? craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-261 Wed, 30 Dec 2009 13:54:49 +0000 craig7 261@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ USO has bounced up from the trend line shown on the chart. I will have to admit that I have had difficulty in analyzing this chart. The price did drop as I anticipated in earlier updates; however, I did not anticipate the bounce we have seen on the chart. USO continues to trade below the 233 EMA and a trend line drawn from the 10/21/09 high. I have to remind myself that oil is in a counter trend correction by constantly looking at the weekly chart. However, it is very frustrating from a day-to-day basis. Therefore, with an intelligent guess, what can I garner from the information that we have? The bounce from the 12/11/09 low has not been any easier to figure out using Elliott Wave analysis. I can potentially count a wave 1, 2, and 3 up, indicating higher prices. However, it could be corrective and the count could be waves a, b, and c, indicating lower prices. One critical level for lower prices is the wave-b low of 12/22/09. A drop below that level will signal that the bounce from the 12/11/09 low was corrective. I will have to re-evaluate the chart again if the price moves higher the next couple of days. One significant resistance is the trend line mentioned above. We will have to wait and see how the price reacts with that resistance. We will also have to keep an eye on the 233 EMA, which has proven to be significant resistance to this point. The next couple of days will be critical for the understanding of which way USO is heading. As I mentioned above, the 12/22/09 low is the critical level to watch. A break below that level should usher in lower prices. <a href="http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html</a> craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-249 Mon, 21 Dec 2009 18:28:20 +0000 craig7 249@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ USO has retested the up slopping trend line and seems to have found good resistance because it firmly repelled the price. The price also made its way into the TAZ, but has since fall out of the area. We should see a challenge of the 34 level in the next couple of days. <a href="http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html</a> craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-247 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:11:35 +0000 craig7 247@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ There is much to say about the EMAs for USO. We have already seen how resistant the 233 EMA has been and now it is again starting to decline. The 233 EMA is like turning a huge ship. It takes a lot of space to get it turned around. The other significant fact about the 233 EMA is that the 55 EMA is below it. This all indicates that the long-term trend is down and does not look like it will change anytime soon. There is more about the EMAs. The 13 EMA is below the 55 EMA and the 55 EMA is turning down, which indicates an expectation the price in the intermediate term is to move to the downside. Of course, the price is below it all, even though we can expect a retest of the 55 EMA. There are unfilled gaps that were formed in the first week of December. It would be no surprise if the price moved back up to fill those gaps. That would test the 55 EMA. The price does not have to move up from here, it could fall to lower lows. The MACD and the Slow Stochastic are not oversold right now. This gives the price room to move further to the downside before it takes a good pause. The sure fire sign that the downtrend is still in tact and is about to pick up steam will be a price break below the 9/25/09 low. That price level is definitely not as far from the current price as it once was a couple of weeks ago. craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-244 Sat, 12 Dec 2009 20:31:16 +0000 craig7 244@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Donato, fundamentally I agree with you. However, the market is starting to tell us something is up. The dollar has shown some strength lately and traders will be watching that very closely in the near future. Interest rates are also starting to rise. The Government is trying to keep the interest rates low, but the market has other ideas. Keep looking for confirmation in a change of trend. Donato on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-243 Sat, 12 Dec 2009 08:57:45 +0000 Donato 243@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ EDIT FOR ABOVE POST: It appears I can't remember what the date is. That date above should have been 12-11-09. Donato on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-242 Fri, 11 Dec 2009 11:45:07 +0000 Donato 242@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ 11-18-09 The price of oil has been quite interesting to me lately. You've got the weak economy, lots of supply above ground, and the value of our dollar (getting "stronger" lately) all pushing the price of oil down. My bet is that the mental moron in the White House will continue to de-value our dollar, which will trump all, sending oil back up dramatically over time. I think it is one of the best hedges against inflation that there is out there. The only real question is which vehicle to use for an investment. craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-241 Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:44:53 +0000 craig7 241@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ USO fell hard today even though the US Dollar did not close up for the day. The price has found the up slopping trend line today and may cause a pause. How long it will pause here is the question. I believe the 34 level will be tested in the next week or so, if not the 32 level. Volume was relatively high today. The MACD and the Slow Stochastic are no where near the oversold area, which gives the price more room to the downside if it so chooses. The Slow Stochastic just broke through the 50% level today. <a href="http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html</a> craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-239 Fri, 04 Dec 2009 20:23:43 +0000 craig7 239@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ USO painted a bearish engulfment candlestick today. Looks like Oil is heading lower. craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-231 Wed, 02 Dec 2009 16:08:16 +0000 craig7 231@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ USO has been trading sideways since 10/28/09 with a downward bias. One thing I wrote in the 11/17/09 post, which I want to continue keeping in front of you is, “The price action is very choppy with overlapping waves. One thing I do want to point out is the fact that Oil has been in a corrective pattern since 2/9/09. That is a very long correction. Just remember that the main trend is still to the downside. We cannot get lost in the recent move and especially in what the media says.” I also want to remind you that the price continues to remain below the 233 EMA, which has been strong resistance in the past. I do not expect the price to back above the 233 EMA for a long time, from what I see right now. Another important fact is that the price continues to make lower lows and highs. I will remain bearish on Oil as long as this price action remains as the norm. A break of the 11/27/09 low will be a good sign that lower prices are ahead. A break below the 9/24/09 low will be major. The trend will definitely be showing signs of a change in trend by the time price reach that low. The only thing I see that would change my bearish stance is a break of the trend line connecting the highs from the 10/21/09 high. A break of that line, I will turn bullish and consider buying the bull Oil Funds. <a href="http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html</a> craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-226 Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:25:13 +0000 craig7 226@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ This morning, USO has fallen below the 11/13/09 low, which is a new lower low. The price has also fallen below the parallel trend line shown on the chart. I expect the price to fall to the 34 price level minimum. <a href="http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html</a> craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-223 Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:57:55 +0000 craig7 223@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ USO has been trading sideways since 10/28/09. The price action is very choppy with overlapping waves. One thing I do want to point out is the fact that Oil has been in a corrective pattern since 2/9/09. That is a very long correction. Just remember that the main trend is still to the downside. We cannot get lost in the recent move and especially in what the media says. The correction looks to be a large Elliott Wave Double Zig-Zag pattern. The recent high of 10/21/09 could be very likely the end of the correction. If you have not figured it out yet, picking tops or bottoms is no cakewalk. As you can see in the 60-minute chart, I have labeled the wave patterns with Elliott Wave count labels. I have labeled three consecutive one and two waves. I have labeled them as waves 1 and 2, waves i and ii, and waves .i and .ii. Each wave two does not retrace more than the previous wave two. Each wave one is lower than the previous wave one and each wave two is lower than the previous wave two. All this indicates that a potential wave three is ahead to the downside and it should be a significant decline. I will discuss a potential alternate count so everyone will have all the facts and potential moves. Even this alternate count still indicates lower prices for the short-term. The alternate count will be where wave 1 = wave A, wave 2 = wave B, wave .i = wave C, and wave .ii = wave D. That means wave E yet to appear. If there is a wave E, it should form a three-wave pattern to the downside. After wave E is complete, you then can expect prices to make new highs for the year. TAZ traders will have conflicts with this analysis. The TAZ has been good support for a while for USO. If you are going to trade the TAZ, just keep a close eye. Volume has been very weak over the last three weeks. That means there has been low volatility with traders being complacent. If my first analysis is correct, look for volume to rise significantly along with volatility. <a href="http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html</a> craig7 on "USO" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/uso#post-215 Sat, 14 Nov 2009 20:43:13 +0000 craig7 215@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ USO is still struggling to get above its 233 EMA. It has actually come down from that resistance since the last update. There are reasons to believe that a change in trend has taken place. As just mentioned, USO is falling away from its 233 EMA. It tested with the island reversal surrounding the 11/4/09 top. The price bounced to retest it again but could not break above the resistance and the high of 11/4/09. It has however, broken below the lows of 11/2/09 and 11/6/09. It will be interesting to see how the 55 EMA holds up as support. The price has so far retraced 38.2% of the move from the 9/24/09 low to the 10/21/09 high, which cuts across support of the previous top of 8/24/09. I look for a decline to at least the 50% retracement and may even make the 61.8% in relatively a short time. This would put the price below the 55 EMA, further strengthening the case for a change in trend. I have placed Elliott Wave Count labels on a 60-minute chart for better clarity. As you can see, the decline from the 10/21/09 high to the low of 10/28/09 was a clear five waves down to complete wave I. The price action from there to the 11/10/09 high traced out an expanding triangle to complete wave II. Right now, I am showing an incomplete five waves down from the 11/10/09 wave II. If my count is correct, the price should continue to fall. How far will USO fall? Consider that if the price declines below the 11/13/09 low the next day or two it will complete wave v. However, that will be only wave 1 of III, meaning that wave III will be an extended wave. That would indicate a much more of a decline than I think most people expect. Time will tell. Could I be wrong in my analysis and Elliott Wave Count? Yes. What I have labeled wave I could be wave A of a corrective Zig-Zag pattern. What I have labeled wave II could be wave B and with one more push lower could potentially complete wave v of C, and therefore, potentially signal the end of the correction. What are the critical levels to watch for confirmation of one way or the other? First, Elliott Wave rules do not allow wave two to retrace more than 100% of wave one. In addition, if my count is correct, once wave 1 completes, wave 2 cannot retrace 100% of wave 1. In my count, wave 1 started with the 11/10/09 high. Therefore, the price cannot break that level. The price could potentially make one more move up Monday to the 39.60 level. However, I expect USO to decline to the 34 to 36 levels minimum to complete wave III. After that a small pause for wave IV before further declines in wave V. Whichever way you want to trade this setup, just remember the 11/10/09 high is the critical level to watch. As the pattern develops further, I will keep you posted of what we can expect. <a href="http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html</a>