ETF Trends Forum Topic: DUG

ETF Trends Forum Topic: DUG http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Keeping a grip on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) en Sat, 26 May 2012 14:49:35 +0000 Donato on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-308 Sat, 16 Jan 2010 19:00:26 +0000 Donato 308@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ 1-16-10 With this little down turn in the market, it's time to start considering shorting your favorite ultra short again. SRS and SKF have been among my favorites in the past; DUG in the most recent past. Good Luck Donato on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-300 Mon, 11 Jan 2010 21:40:37 +0000 Donato 300@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Yeah. It's been a good run. I bought cover for the shorts. Not because of the candles though, mainly to free up the bucks for other trades. Talk to you later. The best of luck in your trades! craig7 on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-299 Mon, 11 Jan 2010 21:11:13 +0000 craig7 299@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Donato, The candlestick patterns today in USO, OIH, UCO, and UGA does not look good. They were either engulfing or Dark Cloud Covers. craig7 on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-275 Tue, 05 Jan 2010 12:16:23 +0000 craig7 275@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Hi Donato, Good call! I missed! DUG is now testing horizontal support. Will it hold? I have my doubts. Donato on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-274 Tue, 05 Jan 2010 09:21:17 +0000 Donato 274@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Fall DUG, fall . . . ! Keep falling . . . Baby needs a new pair of shoes . . . craig7 on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-222 Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:56:36 +0000 craig7 222@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ DUG had a somewhat choppy decline from the 10/21/09 low, which would have one conclude that the price action was corrective. However, careful analysis of that wave structure using a 60-minute chart does show an impulsive five-wave pattern. Another hint is the thirteen waves up to the 11/3/09 high, again using a 60-minute chart. If you can count 5, 9, or 13 waves, it then indicates an impulsive pattern according to Elliott Wave analysis. DIG is the Ultra Long Oil & Gas ProShares ETF and it painted a candlestick Bearish Harami yesterday and a Bearish Engulfment today. Those are strong signals that DIG is heading lower, therefore, a good sign of higher prices for DUG. The price has tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for a week now. The price has tried to push to the 78.6% retracement, but has come short of actually touching the level. I do not believe that the price will reach it with the candlestick patterns of the last two days. We will know for sure in the next day or so. If you are a TAZ trader, you will have difficulty going against the trading principles of TAZ. You will have to keep a close eye over the next couple of days. A close above the 11/13/09 high will be a sign of strength and should signal a TAZ trader to watch for possible long positions. The volume has been very weak with the drop in price off the 11/13/09 high. Look for volume to pick up significantly if the price breaks out to the upside. Another sign of strength is the fact that the MACD has remained positive, as the price has fallen over the last two weeks. <a href="http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/dug/html" rel="nofollow">http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/dug/html</a> craig7 on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-221 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 19:09:50 +0000 craig7 221@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Donata, I am actually betting that DUG bottomed on 10/21/09. However, today tested my analysis and my nerves. The price dropped again to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Tomorrow or the next day will be critical for my analysis and your trade. I am like you, I like using candlestick patterns, which is a true picture of the price action. I only use MACD and Slow Stochastic as a confirmation or look for divergences between these indicators and price. I also rely on support/resistance, EMA, and Fibonacci retracements. Reversals are tricky and very hard to trade. I normally do not bottom fish or pick tops. I usually try to stay away from them. However, my analysis indicates that we are at a critical time in the markets on a long term basis. Therefore, I have relied on Elliott wave analysis to help determine the tops and bottoms in these markets. Donato on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-220 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 09:49:13 +0000 Donato 220@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Hi Craig . . . Ok, I'm in. So far, this trade has given me the low risk entry that I look for. I got in at $12.40 (Monday 11-16-09) with a short quickly after the market opened with about a 2 1/2% risk on my stop. After half an hour, I tightened up my stop to $12.45. So now my risk is something like less than one half of one percent. Due to the big move so far today, (at the moment of typing this) I'm up seven times my risk, that's what I consider good risk management! If I'm correct in picking the direction, my risk Vs reward is fantastic. If you're correct, I only lose a little bit, and I still live to trade another day. And get back in the trade at an even better price to short again! Regarding the time in the trade . . . I truly hope I'm in for a long time. And I truly hope it goes down every day from this moment forward! I would also argue that we are still in the middle of this trend. And from a theoretical stand point, no, TAZ does not have to cross over sometime. I only pick reversals from candlestick patterns like hammers, swing point low, tweezers, englufing, etc. I gave up on all of the other techniques and indicators that so many people live and breathe by. I just look at the trend and utilize strict risk management. Just thought I'd let you know I put my money where my mouth is. As always, The best of luck to you, and keep those ideas coming . . . craig7 on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-218 Sun, 15 Nov 2009 12:28:49 +0000 craig7 218@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ I appreciate everybody’s comments. I do not mind criticism when done constructively. I sure don’t have the market on being right. I am usually wrong most often than not, especially when it comes to timing. I would like to post my analysis and have people comment to affirm my analysis by supporting it with there own analysis or be constructively critical with their own analysis as to why my analysis may be wrong. This will help us all learn from each other. I think I am going to like this forum. I can see that we are all grown-ups and can talk through any issue presented. Donato, may I address your concern about risk management. I agree that what is at risk is much more than what a trader would like to concede. However, my trade recommendations are a little longer term and expect to gain anywhere from 20% to 40% in some ETFs. I like to use TAZ in the middle of a trend, however, I also use Elliott Wave analysis and it can be difficult to justify the risk during a change in trend. Using Elliott Wave analysis can sometimes put you at odds with other trading methods, such as TAZ, especially around tops and bottoms. TAZ has to cross over sometime. I appreciate you guys! Let’s learn from each other and help teach others. Keep it coming! Donato on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-217 Sun, 15 Nov 2009 09:31:10 +0000 Donato 217@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Craig . . . Take it easy, nobody said your idea was a stupid trade. And I much appreciate you turning me onto the TAZ. Like you, I seem to favor the 13/55 EMA's over the 10/30 MA's. Except in a lose general sense for sectors and industries, I do not use fundamental analysis for my trading, maybe one reason I have come to like the TAZ so much. And I think in one of your post's, you said a move into the TAZ is an alert to begin watching. Well, I'm watching DUG now, thanks to you. I'm also not going to fight the long established trend, nor am I going to fight the "time decay quotient" that is inherent with all leveraged ETF's. It goes on and on, like the value of our dollar falling, which will only make commodities cost more (uh oh, didn't mean to bring fundamentals into it!). The way I see it, I'm only stacking the odds in my favor. I keep my trading as simple as possible these days. Primarily looking at overall market trends, support and resistance, volume, risk manamement, and now the TAZ. Athough there may be a short term play to go long, I'll be putting the odds in my favor by looking at the short side of the trade. In fact, if the market goes up on Monday (11-16-09), DUG will probably go down, and I'll look for a good entry to go short. In the end, a traders risk management plan usually determines his (or hers) success or failure. Your risk management is too risky for me; well over 10%, getting close to 15%. My initial stop will be much much closer to my entry. If I'm wrong about the timing, I'm wrong. And I'll wait for another entry. Contrary to what the government wants you to believe, there has not been any "recovery" in the economy yet (the markets yes, the economy no), so the consumption of nat gas and oil could easily fall further, driving up the share price of this fund. But that's only in the short term, and it will only give me a better entry. It should be pretty easy to pull a 20 to 25% or more gain out of this trade. Good Luck to you all! jeffshepherd on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-216 Sun, 15 Nov 2009 08:12:03 +0000 jeffshepherd 216@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Hi Craig, What I am saying in my first comment is that DUG is an ETF that shorts oil and gas and that natural gas has fallen recently. I am not in anyway saying this is a stupid trade, I don't have the experience to be able to even say such a thing so I am sorry if what I said offended you. I have looked at the charts for DUG again and have seen where I am at fault with my first post so once again I am sorry if I offened you. To help me with my education in trading I have just subscribed to your news letter :-) Jeff craig7 on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-214 Sat, 14 Nov 2009 19:24:01 +0000 craig7 214@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ I am saying DUG is a buy. I would never recommend buying DUG if I used fundamental analysis only. I would never recommend a buy in DUG if I listened to everybody else and their reason for why oil and gas has to go up. However, I use technical analysis, and what I read in the charts tells me that DUG is potentially changing trend. I do realize that I may be wrong, I have been wrong once or twice maybe. But, that is my analysis. If you want to be critical, be critical with a good critical critique and not just saying it is a stupid trade. A good critical critique would benefit everybody reading this post, weather I am right or wrong in my analysis. jeffshepherd, your second comment I respect and appreciate as I am sure everybody else does. jeffshepherd on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-212 Sat, 14 Nov 2009 13:27:05 +0000 jeffshepherd 212@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Donato, If Craig means short DUG then yep, it has just bounced off a major support level and is currently at 12.72. There is major resistance at about 15.50 so room for a possible 20% gain. On the other hand, DUG is approaching major resistence in a downwards trend so I would wait for it to break above that. Donato on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-211 Sat, 14 Nov 2009 12:17:51 +0000 Donato 211@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ Jeff and Craig . . . I would follow the long established trend of this fund; now that it is in the TAZ, look for shorting opportunities. I'm with you Jeff, time to short this fund. If you short an ultra short fund, you are actually going long! Good Luck! jeffshepherd on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-210 Sat, 14 Nov 2009 08:10:07 +0000 jeffshepherd 210@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ DUG is ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas. Natural gas has fallen quite a long way recently because there is a glut in the market but with winter coming the glut will shrink and help to drive prices back up. With this information why would someone want to go short? craig7 on "DUG" http://www.etftrends.com/forum/topic/dug#post-208 Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:15:08 +0000 craig7 208@http://www.etftrends.com/forum/ DUG has dropped to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the move from the 10/21/09 low to the 11/3/09 high. The next couple of days will be critical for this fund. New recovery highs or new lows will be determined very soon. If a change in trend is taking place, the price must move higher through the 11/4/09 high. If I have the wave count correct, the 11/4/09 high is the b wave of the wave 2 correction. Elliott Wave rules do not allow wave two to retrace more than 100% of wave one. There could potentially be two consecutive waves one and two down from the 11/3/09 high. However, if the price breaks above the 11/4/09 high, then we can eliminate the potential for lower lows, meaning the trend is up. The break of the 11/4/09 high will indicate that wave two is complete and wave three is under way with price breaking into higher highs. I have put Elliott Wave count labels on a 60-min chart to show the potential labeling of the wave pattern. You will see that I have labeled waves i, ii, iii, and iv from the 11/11/09 low. The price must break higher Monday for this interpretation to have any standing at all. The price is still hanging around inside the TAZ on the daily chart. If price breaks out to the upside as mentioned, it should push the price above the 55 EMA indicating the change in trend. It will be most special if the price can break out above the 11/3/09 high. Volume has been light of late. Expect the volume to pick up significantly if the price breaks out in wave three up. I have been on the sideline with the Oil and Gas Funds. That is changing. I recommend taking a position in DUG if price breaks the 11/4/09 high. A more conservative trade will be taking a position if price breaks the 11/3/09 high. Put the stop loss just under the low of 11/11/09. Be a smart trader! Craig <a href="http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/dug.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/dug.html</a>