With major benchmarks trading near highs in a seasonally weak period for the equities market, U.S. stock exchange traded funds may have more room to run.
Over the past month, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca: SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca: IVV) and Vanguard 500 Index (NYSEArca: VOO) remain flat after the S&P 500 touched an all-time high in late May. [U.S. Stocks, ETFs Can Still Push Higher in Rising Rate Environment]
“It’s very rare and unusual for the markets to peak out for the year in May or June,” Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners, said on CNBC.
The S&P 500 is trading about 26 points, or less than half a percentage point, below its 2,134.72 high set on May 20.
Over the past 86 years, Krinsky calculated that the S&P 500 made a calendar-year high only once in the month of June and twice in the month of May.
“This suggests that even if there is weakness into the summer, a higher high should be made by year-end,” Krinsky added.
Between 1928 and 2014, the S&P 500 has typically made the most calendar year highs in December, followed by January and November. As many market participants know, these months correspond with the economic boost experienced during winter holiday season.