Thanks to the U.S. dollar, the carry trade is being flipped on its head. Investors who want to play the low, low rates on the dollar have a few exchange traded fund (ETF) options.
For the first time in 16 years, the U.S. dollar is cheaper to borrow than the Japanese yen. This is bad news for the U.S. dollar, as it has long benefited from positive yield premiums. David Roman for The Wall Street Journal reports that the prospect of the Federal Reserve keeping U.S. overnight interest rates essentially at zero until at least late next year has wiped out the dollar’s premium.
The dollar’s cheapness has sent one positive signal, though: fear in the credit markets has eased a great deal. The Libor (London interbank offered rate) has declined sharply.
On the other hand, this means that investors are less likely to put their capital into dollar assets. It’s more bad news for the dollar, because it’s already being weakened by the massive amounts of money the government has been printing.
- PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish (UDN): up 4.3% year-to-date
- PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest (DBV): up 14.6% year-to-date
For more stories about the U.S. dollar, visit our currency category.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.