As foreign central banks enact loose monetary policies, a strong U.S. dollar will negatively affect prominent technology stocks, along with related sector exchange traded funds, that have significant overseas exposure.
The Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLK) has been outperforming the broader markets but a strong dollar could crimp the sector’s performance. XLK has declined 1.5% year-to-date and increased 16.0% over the past year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has dipped 1.7% year-to-date and rose 12.3% over the past year. [Strong U.S. Dollar Could Pressure S&P 500 Earnings, ETFs]
A “strong dollar is negative for any company with significant overseas business,” James Kelleher, director of research at Argus, said in a CNBC article. “Companies like IBM and HP can’t totally avoid a currency headwind at the cost of being a global company.”
According to Kensho quantitative analytic data, when the U.S. dollar appreciated 5% or more over 60 trading days on 10 separate occasions since Jan. 1, 2005, tech companies were among the worst performers over the following three months.
For instance, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) traded in the red 70% of the time, with a negative median return of 4.51%. Intel (NasdaqGS: INTC) traded negative 70% of the time, with a median return of 2.97%. Adobe (NasdaqGS: ADBE) was negative 60% of the time with a median negative return of 5.19%.
IBM (NYSE: IBM) also blamed the strong currency Tuesday for erasing any chance of a revenue increase this year, following its earnings report.
XLK includes a 3.8% tilt toward INTC, 3.7% in IBM, 1.5% in HPQ and 0.9% in ADBE.