After an impressive run, investors are growing wary about an overbought market. Nevertheless, stock exchange traded funds could still have some legs.
U.S. price-to-earnings ratios jumped 19% last year, but expanding multiples have preceded broad stock market advances twice as often as retreats, reports Whitney Kisling for Bloomberg.
Since 1936, the S&P 500 has gained 69% of the time in the period following quarters when valuations expanded, averaging 14% returns in years after over 400 constituents in the index rose.
“One sign that things are becoming more popular is they’re more expensive,” Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer of Marketfield Asset Management LLC, said in the article. “I would be quite surprised if this bull market didn’t continue for another two to three years.”
Nevertheless, some caution that investors should not expect a repeat of last year’s surge.
“While valuation is by no means grossly overvalued, current levels suggest it may be more difficult for the market to continue its impressive run without equally impressive earnings growth,” Brian Belski, the chief investment strategist at BMO, said.
Investors interested in taking broad exposure to the S&P 500 can take a look at the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca: VOO) or iShares S&P 500 Index (NYSEArca: IVV). [S&P 500 ETFs Open Doors to Facebook]