The United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO), which tracks West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, is off nearly 15% over the past month, putting the widely followed oil exchange traded product dangerously close to another bear market.
However, some oil market observers believe the commodity has near-term rally potential falling its recent precipitous decline.
Looking ahead, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will consider agreeing on output cuts for most members when the group’s energy ministers meet on November 30.
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OPEC plans to diminish output to a range of 32.5 to 33.0 million barrels per day from its current estimated output of 33.24 million barrels per day. While Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer, has agreed to reduce output, Iran, Libya and Nigeria might not follow suit.
U.S. shale drillers have been paring production in an effort to improve profitability, but some OPEC members and other major producers, including Russia, continue pumping despite lower prices. That scenario is seen as a significant headwind for oil price upside.
On the other hand, there are several reasons oil can rebound off its recent lows.