Despite a rough day for riskier assets Monday, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) tumbled 1.3%. The world’s largest bullion-backed exchange traded fund is off 4.5% over the past three months, extending its multi-year bear market.
Bearish forecasts continue mounting against the yellow metal, confirming that gold is still in a lengthy bear market, giving some traders pause about how much more near-term upside the yellow metal has in store. [Doubters in Gold Rally]
Gold futures and physically-backed ETFs have been pressure this year amid speculation the Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates, which has pushed the dollar higher. Higher interest rates would diminish gold’s attractiveness since the precious metal does not pay interest like fixed-income assets.
Even if rates rose a couple basis points, the continued low rate environment is good for gold, which does not pay a yield and would struggle to compete with yield-generating assets when rates rise.
“I think there’s still downside here,” Rich Ross said Monday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” Gold prices got a bid last week on the heels of a surprise stimulus package from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi as well as a strong jobs number on Friday. “However, we’ve seen those trends reverse, and I think ultimately gold is going to wilt over that pressure.” Gold closed Monday’s session down 1 percent.”
Gold has been in a 2-year bear market, which has seen failed rallies on the back of various news events. Continued strength in the US economy and labor market has offset political and economic events since the Gold market turned bearish in 2013.
Now, more evidence is emerging that gold demand is expected to remain tepid in the near-term.