Bullion Base: Gold ETFs Could Rally Some More
February 10th, 2014 at 7:00am by Tom Lydon
Much of the attention being paid to the rally in gold-related exchange traded funds this year has been directed to mining ETFs.
That is understandable because not only ETFs such as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) and the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDXJ) popular with investors, but those funds offer the opportunity for rapid capital appreciation. Of course, it cannot be forgotten that there has NEVER been a year in which the miners have risen while gold futures have declined. [Miners Ready to Beat Bullion]
That means although they are lagging the mining funds, gold-backed ETFs, such as the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU), have performed well this year, too. More upside for gold, GLD, IAU and rival funds could be on the way.
Citigroup’s FX Technicals group expects gold to retest $1,361 per troy ounce and, eventually, $1,433 an ounce, representing significant upside potential from Friday’s close just below $1,263 an ounce, according to a post on Zero Hedge.
A rally through those prices “would be a major bullish break. As seen throughout the last major bull market in gold, there appears to be an inverse relationship between Gold and Equities at this stage of the cycle. While we have not yet seen significant bearish breaks on Equities, just as we have not seen bullish ones on gold, the price action on both are beginning to point towards exactly that,” according to Citi. [Macro Issues Lifting Gold ETFs]
Citi also noted that the “key medium term level on Gold is the double bottom neckline at $1,433. The pattern would target $1,686,” according to Zero Hedge.
The encouraging view on bullion combines with an encouraging technical backdrop for mining ETFs. GDXJ surged 5.1% on more than double the average daily volume Friday, bring the $1.5 billion ETF’s year-to-date gain north of 16%. GDXJ has notched consecutive closes above a downtrend line that dates back to 2012. [Good News for Gold Mining ETFs]
After being the worst ETF in terms of 2013 outflows, GLD has brought in almost $157 million in new capital since the end of last month.
SPDR Gold Shares
ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this post. Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of GLD.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.