Cocoa ETN Looking Sweet

September 18th at 8:00am by Tom Lydon

It has been a rough year for commodities ETFs and ETNs and not is just gold and silver plays that have suffered. Exchange traded products offering exposure to soft commodities have been repudiated as well. For example, the Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSEArca: CORN) is down 22.2% this year while the iPath DJ-UBS Coffee TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSEArca: JO) has plunged nearly 28%.

Cocoa is one soft commodity that has shined amid a tumultuous year for commodities. The iPath DJ-UBS Cocoa TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSEArca: NIB) is up 15.3% year-to-date and 5.2% in just the past week. More gains could be on the way for the oft-overlooked ETN. [Cocoa ETN Rallies on Supply Concerns]

Last week, December 2013 cocoa “opened at $2,555 per tonne and closed the week at $2,601. You can see cocoa has moved up nicely since the July 1 open of $2,170. Looking at the data below from the ICCO we see forecast a supply deficit for 2012/2013. A few weeks ago the ICCO increased the size of the supply deficit from what was earlier forecast. On the monthly chart below you can see the price action during and after these periods of supply deficit,” reports Gary Kamen for Futures Magazine.

Although daily grindings have remained steady, data from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) indicate cocoa supplies will be in deficit for the current crop year after running surpluses in three of the previous four crop years. Production will be 118,000 metric tons smaller than consumption in 2013-14, on top of a shortage of 98,000 tons this year, reports Isis Almeida for Bloomberg.

NIB is benefiting from a confluence of factors, namely robust demand for chocolate and issues in the world’s top cocoa producing countries. Global chocolate sales are expected to jump 6.2% to $117 billion next year, Bloomberg reported.

Dry weather has hampered cocoa growing efforts in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer. Indonesia, the third-largest cocoa producer, has seen gradually declining output for several years while reduced government subsidies for pesticides has led to lower production in Ghana. Ghana is the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.

iPath DJ-UBS Cocoa TR Sub-Index ETN

ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this post.

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.

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