Gold Miners ETF Could Face Technical Pullback
August 28th, 2013 at 8:30am by Tom Lydon
Heading into Tuesday’s trading session, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) was sitting on a one-month gain of 10.3%. Combine that price appreciation with the fact GDX attracted $1.8 billion in new assets in under a week, and a case can be made that GDX and other gold miners ETFs are due for a breather.
The technicals confirm that a pullback may be afoot for GDX. GDX, the largest gold miners ETF by assets, has conquered several important technical feats during its recent ascent, including conquering prior price resistance along with reclaiming its 20- and 50-day moving averages. [Small But Might Gold Miners ETF Soars]
However, one of the most important areas for GDX to surpass is $31. The ETF did that, briefly, on Tuesday, but after trading as high as $31.35, GDX closed lower by 4.3% on volume that was nearly double the daily average, confirmation that selling pressure was intense. GDX has not closed above $31 since April.
Technical analyst Chris Kimble noted the Gold Bugs Index, which is not GDX’s underlying index, came to a stop at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level following a gain of over 9% in just two weeks. Fibonacci retracments are used in technical analysis to identify areas of support and resistance.
Earlier this month, GDX staged a notable bullish reversal last week right at the right shoulder of a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a move that coincided with the ETF climbing above its 50-day simple moving average for the first time since November 2012. [Have Gold Miners ETFs Finally Hit a Bottom?]
GDX, which is still saddled with a year-to-date loss of more than 39%, could see an intense battle of buyers and sellers in the $31 area because of the significance this price area holds for the ETF. On the daily chart, should GDX topple $31, there is not much in the way of material resistance on the way to $35. That price point is not just psychologically important, but $35 on the GDX daily chart is also where the 200-day moving average comes into play.
GDX has not traded above that long-term trend line since the first quarter and a move above that level could stoke new buying above trend followers as well as confirm a new bull market for the ETF.
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF
ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this article.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.