Investors are turning against the consumer discretionary exchange traded funds. Still, the excessively bearish outlook can be an opportunity to step in as the sector bounces around its short-term trend line.
In a mid-August report, Bank of America outlined a bearish outlook on consumer discretionary stocks. BofA believes the sector is “the most overweight sector relative to the S&P 500 by large cap active managers.” BofA also points to “elevated downside risk for the sector’s earnings,” as well as rising interest rates that might push consumers “toward saving over spending,” reports Victor Reklaitis for MarketWatch. [Attention Shoppers: Discretionary ETFs Could See Falling Prices]
However, Schaeffer’s Investment Research suggests that the negative sentiment is overdone. [Ahead of Fed Consider…Discretionary ETFs?]
“Among specific equities we’re following are Orbitz Worldwide (OWW), TripAdvisor (TRIP), Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), and Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF),” Schaeffer’s said. “Each of these names has outperformed the broader SPX throughout the past three months, yet it would take at least a week to cover the shorted shares of each stock. An unwinding of this pessimism in the face of the sector’s continued momentum could translate into a contrarian boon down the road.”
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLY) has gained 23.9% year-to-date but dipped below its 50-day moving average on escalating talks of potential action against Syria Tuesday. Looking at XLY holdings, TRIP is 0.4%,