Technical Outlook Improving for Gold Miners ETF
July 24th, 2013 at 8:45am by Tom Lydon
The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) is getting plenty of attention these days. A five-day surge of 9.2% will do that. Rising gold prices are helping, but GDX’s five-day gain is more than double that of the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD).
If gold futures continue climbing higher, that could be just the fundamental tonic miners and ETFs like GDX need to keep rolling. Improving gold futures have helped GDX achieve one noteworthy technical feat. On Monday, the ETF crossed above its 50-day moving average for the first time in nine months and that move was confirmed with a 3.3% gain Tuesday on volume that was more than 50% above the daily average. [Gold Miner ETF Tops 50-Day for First Time in 9 Months]
There are more encouraging technical signs for GDX, according to Chris Kimble of Kimble Charting Solutions. Kimble notes that GDX could be forming a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern and that the pattern would be confirmed if the ETF is able to breakthrough “neckline” resistance at $30, just 5.8% above Tuesday’s closing price.
The $30 area could prove to be stiff resistance for GDX, but if the fund is able to push through that level, especially if it does on strong volume, upside from there could be significant. [Gold Mining ETFs: Contrarian Buys]
If GDX is able to reach $30, that would be a roughly 26% gain since June 26. Since that day GDX, has delivered returns that are two-and-a-half times better than GLD and better than triple those offered by the S&P 500, according to Kimble.
It is hard to beat a gain of 20% since June 26, but if investors are looking for such an ETF, the Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSEArca: SIL) is one to consider. That fund is now up 31% since June 26 and also crossed its 50-day moving average on Monday. If SIL can breakthrough the $14.20 area, it could move to $16 to fill in an April gap down in that area.
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF
ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this piece. Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of GLD.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.