Turkey stocks and the related exchange traded fund, one of the best performing emerging markets over the past year, are hitting a snag as the markets move toward risk aversion and the easy liquidity from the Fed’s QE program is being questioned.
The iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Markets Index (NYSEArca: TUR) was down 2.9% Wednesday and is 2.8% lower over the past week, trading below its short-term, 50-day moving average. Over the last year, TUR has gained 64.4%.
According to Bhanu Baweja and Manik Narain, analysts at UBS AG, Turkey is among the “large emerging-market current-account deficit economies” taking a hit in the current sell-off as investors look for “quality rather than yield,” reports Taylan Bilgic for Bloomberg.
“This is almost full-blown risk aversion we are going through in global emerging markets,” Benoit Anne, head of emerging-market strategy at Societe Generale SA, said in a note. “The general market momentum is clearly not working in favor of global emerging market risky assets.”
Barclays also warned that speculations on tapering U.S. stimulus could also negatively affect Turkish equities, reports Ben Levisohn for Barron’s.
“Investors who are concerned about the reversal of Fed easing should consider short positions in assets with high elasticities to the Fed and expensive valuations versus history,” Barclays strategist Michael Gavin said in a note. “Turkish equities and US defensives appear vulnerable.”
iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Markets Index
For more information on Turkey, visit our Turkey category.
Max Chen contributed to this article.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.