SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEArca: DIA) and iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund (NYSEArca: IYT) both set new all-time highs on Wednesday.
According to Dow Theory, one of the oldest market-timing systems, industrial and transportation averages should confirm new highs together in a healthy bull market.
Dow Jones Transportation Average ETF actually broke out to new highs in January, before the Dow Jones Industrial Average. [Transportation ETF Hits All-Time High After 18% Rally]
However, noted Dow Theorist Richard Russell isn’t ringing the bell to buy stocks.
“I’ve never seen anything like the action since the 2009 bottom,” Russell told King World News.
“My explanation of this unprecedented situation is that the advance to new highs was a direct result of never-before-seen manipulation by the Federal Reserve,” he added. “The Fed was able to engineer new post-crash highs in both [Dow Jones] Averages. But I doubt if the Fed will be able to engineer a coming new era of prosperity in America. Thus, it will be an example of where the stock market will not be predicting the nation’s economic future.”
Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research, examined what happens when the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports make new highs within two weeks of each other. Generally, the market often sees strong returns the next year.