China Data Strengthens — Time to Get Back Into ETFs?
November 16th at 8:57am by Tom Lydon
The latest numbers coming out of China are pointing at a turnaround within one of the world’s largest economies. Chinese ETFs have made big strides since September although they’ve been caught in the recent risk-off bout gripping global markets.
“Monthly indicators for October should continue to support our view that the Chinese economy will rebound sharply in Q4,” said a report from Nomura on Friday. The world’s second-largest economy grew 7.4% in the third quarter — the slowest rate since early 2009. But it’s expected to expand 8% in 2013. [China ETF Trading Picks up on Rally, Leadership Transition]
“It should be obvious that China’s economy has turned the corner. While we may not necessarily see gang buster growth, the risks of a hard landing are diminishing fast,” according to the Humble Student of the Markets blog.
Since early October, iShares MSCI China Index Fund (NYSEArca: MCHI) is up 6.5%, compared to a 4% loss for the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY). Tom Aspray for Forbes reports that is the year of the Water Dragon, according to the Chinese calender. Historically, this has been bullish for stocks. [Domestic Consumption Slowdown Hits China ETFs]
Another positive sign within the Chinese economy is from data recorded by the National Bureau of Statistics of China whose numbers prove the local real estate market is on the mend. China’s 70 top cities showed small increases in residential property prices over the past Summer, reports Juan Carlos Arancibia for Investor’s Business Daily.
China is also in the process of streamlining the approval process to encourage direct foreign investment. The overall picture indicates that China is benefiting from the lower interest rates and stimulus programs implemented around the world. Furthermore, cyclical sectors such as industrials, materials and energy are performing well, and point to a turnaround within the economy.
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The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Lydon serves as an independent trustee of certain mutual funds and ETFs that are managed by Guggenheim Investments; however, any opinions or forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Mr. Lydon and not those of Guggenheim Funds, Guggenheim Investments, Guggenheim Specialized Products, LLC or any of their affiliates. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.