Exchange traded funds continue to increase in number and popularity, growing to one of the most commonly traded securities on the stock exchange as both institutional and the average retail investor gain greater access to broad or specialized market exposure. Yet many individuals are unfamiliar with ETFs’ inner workings. In this ongoing series, we hope to address your questions and help shed light on the investment vehicle. [What is an ETF? — Part 22: Commodities]
When it comes to looking at futures-based commodity ETFs, investors should be aware of the basic shape of the futures curve as it provides traders with a sense of whether or not the commodity futures markets are in backwardation or contango. ETFs designed to track futures contracts can be helped or hurt by the shape of the curve.
Ordinarily, futures contracts with a longer expiration date have a higher price, compared to the spot price – this may be attributed to pricing for storage of the physical commodity or other financing costs in today’s price.
As a contract moves closer to the expiration date, the futures price needs to converge with the spot price – traders would arbitrage the difference until no profit can be made, causing both the futures and spot price to meet.
If longer-dated contracts are more expensive, the futures market is said to be in a state of “contango.”