The equities markets and stock exchange traded funds are oscillating as the bulls and bears play tug-of-war over the Eurozone problems. While stocks have regained ground on overselling and easing pressures, the over all market may still be stuck in volatile trading, according to S&P analysts.
The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY) has gained 2.6% over the last week after giving up 4.1% over the past three months. [ETF Chart of the Day: S&P 500]
If the current bearish conditions are really over, the S&P 500 will have recorded its 55th pullback, or a decline of 5% to 9.99%, since WWII, dodging a full “correction” by just 0.06%, Sam Stovall, Chief Equity Strategist at S&P Capital IQ, writes in a research note.
If the recovery this time around is similar to prior recoveries from pullbacks in excess of -8%, the S&P 500 could jump over its 1419 April high in 77 calendar days, Stovall noted.
Stovall also pointed out that 10-week average correlation of S&P 500 sub-sector performances have been a good indicator for identifying turning points. For instance, sectors and sub-industries move in tandem with the S&P 500 in periods of crisis. The average correlation has been 0.63 since 1995, but as of June 8, it was 0.86.