Gold ETFs Size Up 200-Day Average as Dollar Weakens

January 20th at 7:48am by Tom Lydon

Some gold bulls are calling for the precious metal to hit $2,000 an ounce this year on the Eurozone debt crisis and demand from China and India. However, gold exchange traded funds need to first get safely back above the 200-day moving average.

Gold’s recent dip below the 200-day has been unfamiliar territory during the metal’s spike since the beginning of 2009.

Gold price forecasts are calling for a push to $2,000 an ounce later this year or in early 2013, according to the recently published Thomson Reuters GFMS annual gold survey, The Guardian reports. Global investment in gold jumped more than 20% last year to a record $80 billion, lifting the price to its high of $1,920 an ounce in September, according to the study.

Gold futures dipped on Thursday afternoon after touching a five week high earlier in the week. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is up 6% year to date, benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar. Other gold ETFs include ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (SGOL) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU).

Gold for February delivery fell 0.6% on Thursday, resting at $1,654.50 an ounce, reports Tatyana Schhumsy for The WSJ. Reports out of the U.S. showed that core inflation rose 0.1% from the previous month, with consumer prices flat in December. [Investors are Coming Back to Commodity ETFs]

The latest news from the International Monetary Fund that it wants to bolster its capital by at least $500 billion to help insulate global economies from the Eurozone debt crisis could be a bullish sign for gold. The euro regained some strength, pushing the U.S dollar down. Speculators have large short positions betting against the euro.

“The market took heart that this would help ease fiscal problems facing the Eurozone,” Marc Ground, precious metals analyst with Standard Bank, reported in a client note, in the WSJ story. “This renewed confidence has seen markets adopt a cautious risk-on stance, pulling the dollar down and consequently easing downward pressure on precious metals.” [Gold ETFs Battle 50-Day Moving Average]

Gold prices have gained 6.4% early in 2012. Buyers in the futures markets have supported the rise, along with rising demand for gold bullion from jewelry buyers in India. UBS analysts explain that investors in India are seeking to avoid an import tax hike while taking advantage of the decline in rupee-denominated gold prices.

Likewise, news that China’s government will most likely take steps to help kick start the economy supported the rise in gold prices earlier in the week. Consumers in China helped to push gold prices to their highest in over a month. This activity will downshift now that the Lunar New Year break will take place, reports Lewa Pardomuan on Reuters.

“Gold has had a fairly good run so far this year, maybe this is time to consolidate a little. A pause here would probably be a healthy sign. After that I think the next move is likely to be up towards $1,680,”Nick Trevethan, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank, said. [Could Gold ETFs Worsen a Price Decline?]

ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares


Tisha Guerrero contributed to this article.

Full disclosure: Tom Lydon’s clients own GLD and SLV. John Spence owns ZSL.

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.

Tickers

GLD