At the end of last month I penned an article here about how exchange traded funds indexed to the consumer sector were broadcasting a melt-up in equities this fall.
A move higher was a high-probability scenario for the same reasons I called a summer sell-off in June. The Sept. 30 article ran when seemingly the whole world was stunningly bearish, and redemptions from stock funds hit record levels. [Consumer Staples, Discretionary ETFs Suggest Fall Melt-Up]
My reasoning for the call had nothing to do with gut feeling or random guessing. Rather, I was simply listening to the underlying message of the markets, which was suggesting the conditions existed for a violent counter-trend rally on the upside. With markets now on pace for one of the best months in a number of years, it’s worthwhile to revisit consumer staples and consumer discretionary ETFs.
Take a look below at the price ratio of Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEArca: XLP) relative to Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEArca: XLY).
As a reminder, a rising price ratio means the numerator/XLP is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator/XLY. A declining price ratio means the opposite, which in this case wold mean discretionary stocks are outperforming consumer staples.