Recent changes have nearly made Turkey into a new country while the Istanbul Stock Exchange and Turkey exchange traded fund (ETF) jump ahead. Some, though, are questioning the unusually fast growth.
Emerging market guru Mark Mobius predicts that there will be a 15% to 20% correction on the Istanbul Stock Exchange by the end of the year, writes Donata Huggins for CityAM. IG Index’s technical analysis expert David Jones doesn’t believe there is anything to worry about at the moment but cautions investors to pull out if the MSCI Turkey Index drops to 2,600. [Eastern Europe ETFs Outperform.]
Turkey has recently been upgraded to BB+ from its BBB rating, economic reforms have helped strengthen the financial sector and the country’s demographics is also favoring a surge in young workers.
The five-year credit default swaps on Turkey’s sovereign debt recently traded at a record low of 1.17% – the lower the better since investors are more confident to trade on the economy – reports Taylan Bilgic for Hürriyet Daily News. Benchmark bonds are also trading at an all-time low of 7.62%. [Turkey ETF Becomes a Hot Destination.]
Turkey’s public debt to GDP is around 45% and declining. External debt to GDP is at about 60%. The economy is expected to expand 8% this year. However, unemployment is at around 10%, inflation is over 8% and the current account deficit may hit 5% of GDP this year.